Saturday, September 21, 2013

NFL Week 3 Rankings

Russell Wilson with the SeahawksHere are the week 3 NFL betting market rankings. The daily version of these should be up and running soon, as I now have enough weeks of lines and totals to have a properly connected dataset. I still plan on posting a weekly version as a standalone blog post so that past results are a bit easier to view.

These rankings attempt to figure out what the market really "thinks" about each team by reverse engineering an implied power ranking from the Vegas point spread. See here and here for more background.



#1 vs #32

Week three features a matchup between the #1 team (the Seahawks) and the #32 team (the Jaguars). The Seahawks are a 19 point favorite against the Jaguars at home. Since 1999, there have been 14 games in which a team has been favored by at least 19 points. Prior to this week's game, the previous five were games in which the Patriots were favored (four from their 2007 "Are you not entertained?" phase and one from 2011 in which they faced a Dan Orlovsky-led Colts team). Just a side note: of those fourteen games, the underdog covered (but never won) 10 of those 14 times (71.4%).

Rank Team Week 2 GPF
1  SEA 3 8.1
2  DEN 1 7.7
3  SF 2 6.4
4  GB 4 5.9
5  NO 6 3.6
6  HOU 7 3.5
7  NE 5 2.8
8  CHI 9 1.6
9  DET 13 1.5
10  ATL 8 1.4
11  CIN 10 1.0
12  PHI 11 0.8
13  MIA 20 0.6
14  WAS 12 0.4
15  KC 18 0.2
16  DAL 16 -0.2
17  IND 17 -0.2
18  NYG 19 -0.3
19  BAL 14 -0.9
20  CAR 15 -0.9
21  STL 22 -1.2
22  TB 21 -1.3
23  ARI 26 -1.5
24  MIN 23 -2.0
25  SD 27 -2.0
26  TEN 25 -2.1
27  PIT 24 -2.6
28  CLE 28 -4.6
29  OAK 31 -5.0
30  NYJ 29 -5.5
31  BUF 30 -6.1
32  JAC 32 -9.0

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