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14 comments:

  1. These are awesome! Thanks, Michael.

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  2. The floating boxes with extra info were a good addition. Hope the website will (or already is) getting the attention it deserves. Any plans for NFL and NBA tickers? I like their detailed graphs on teams' progression through the season.

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    1. Thanks Ben. Traffic has definitely picked up with the start of the NFL season, but is still pretty meager overall. I really appreciate the feedback and suggestions you've provided. Keep them coming.

      NBA and NFL tickers are just about ready to go. I should be releasing them soon.

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    2. They're awesome. Yeah, it does take time for even an excellent site to pick up traffic. Have you done any basic marketing? Like, say, letting people know at forums know about what you do and so forth?

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  3. Great work here!

    Question - can you work our HFA for each team from these rankings? Or are you using a blanket factor to get to these rankings?

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    1. I currently use a blanket factor of 2.5 points for all teams. I hope to take a look at home field advantage by team for a future post (similar to my BallPark Factors post for MLB).

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    2. Thanks for the info. Would be very interested in seeing that. nice work with the site

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  4. For office pool purposes which would yield a higher winning percentage?The ANS or the Team Rankings?

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    1. Since these rankings are just intended to duplicate the weekly point spreads, it's basically a question of whether the Advanced NFL Stats model can beat Vegas in an office pool format. Although I haven't done the exact calculations, I think Vegas wins out over the long run. But I can say that I won my office pool pretty handily in 2009 with the help of the ANS win probabilities.

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  5. I don't see anything. Tried IE and Chrome, still nothing.

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  6. Say, would it be too much to ask if the ticker on an individual team popped up when we moved the pointer to the vicinity of a micro ticker on this table?

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  7. Graphs don't display on ipad. Look fine in chrome + win7.

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  8. I posted the below comment in the "NFL Playoff Seed Probabilities" post, before noticing that the post was four days old. Apologies for duplicating here, but having spent some time on the comment, I didn't want that time to be wasted.

    "This is a really nice feature, to along with lots of other great stuff on your website.

    If I have understood your methodology for the simulations correctly, then in my view it will give too much confidence in the outcome for very strong or weak teams (this also applies to the old Projected Wins bar graph). Here's why:

    For games without a point spread, you are constructing the point spread yourself from the current GPF. In reality, the GPF evolves from game to game, so it would be better to have a future GPF, but of course changes in GPF are unpredictable. It's reasonable to assume that the current GPF for a given team is the mean of the bell curve of possible future GPFs for that team for any given week in the same season, so I can understand why you've taken this approach.

    However, there is one aspect of the evolution of future GPF that is partly predictable: the GPF of a team that wins a game is more likely to rise than the GPF of a team that loses a game. You could probably test this assertion by constructing bell curves of week-to-week changes in GPF following wins or losses. The best possible simulation of future games would randomly sample the GPF-change bell-curve for a win or a loss (dependent on the simulated game result) each week, and update the GPF for the following game accordingly.

    Why does any of this matter? I think it matters because it will generate a positive correlation between the results of future games for each team (i.e. a team that wins next week is slightly more likely to win the week after as well). This is not because of any spurious idea about "momentum" - I don't think the first win is in any way causing the second win - but because imperfect knowledge of the team will be updated by the win. Let's take the Jaguars as an extreme example:

    Their current GPF is -11.3, meaning that they are currently big underdogs for every game. As long as they keep losing, this GPF will probably keep slowly declining (or possibly hold steady or even improve slightly if they are covering the spreads). An unexpected win, however, will probably (not definitely) lead to a significant improvement in their GPF. In that case, further wins are more likely. The obvious effect of this is to broaden the bell curve of projected wins, but in Jacksonville's case the broadening hardly matters at the low end of the distribution: getting 1 win as opposed to 0 wins won't improve their chances of avoiding being the "16th seed". It does matter at the high end, though. For that reason, I would bite the hand off anyone offering me odds of 33/1 (the 3% probability you project) that Jacksonville will finish 15th or better in the AFC.

    I should say that projections for the season provided by other sites, such as Football Outsiders, seem to have the same issue. The difference is that for the projections offered by those other sites, I think there is little point in sorting out the issue because of bigger problems with their approach. Your method is so well constructed that it would seem to be worth improving in this way."

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  9. It might be nice to have a column for the conference and division, just for sorting purposes.

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