New article at FiveThirtyEight: A Win Probability Guide to US vs. Australia June 08, 2015 I have a new article up at FiveThirtyEight: A Win Probability Guide to US vs. Australia . Continuing my rather unhealthy obsession with...
How to improve your chances of scoring a goal in soccer? Concede one first. August 23, 2014 " If you want to be a millionaire, start with a billion dollars and launch a new airline ." - Richard Branson, Virgin CEO A...
On the Probability of Scoring a Goal July 12, 2014 In this post, I will describe my attempts to model the probability of a goal being scored in soccer. After correcting for team imbalances, I...
Live USA-Germany Win Probabilities June 26, 2014 As always, I don't guarantee this live updates will work, but if all goes well, check the following link at noon ET for a live updating ...
The Betting Odds of a US-Germany Tie June 24, 2014 Collusion theories abound in advance of this Thursday's US-Germany World Cup match. A tie in that match would send both the US and Ger...
In-Match Soccer Probability June 21, 2014 Futbol! In what is becoming somewhat of an obsession, I've added a new sport to my suite of win probability tools: In-Match Soccer P...