Judging Win Probability Models
January 14, 2018
February 11, 2018 update: The Brier score chart at the bottom of this post had an incorrect value for the ESPN "Start of Game" sco...
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2/3/2013 Update: A more mobile friendly version of the chart: Squares Payouts . My most recent two posts covered the concept of in-game ... -
This post has been in the works for several months now, and is the result of a deep dive into the NBA's SportVU motion tracking data . ... -
In a recent post for FiveThirtyEight , Carl Bialik took a look at the length of college basketball games, particularly the grueling slog t... -
Phil Jackson, 1986 : "We'd try to take some air out of the ball. You see, on the ball it says something like 'inflate ... -
This is the first post in a planned series of deep dives into free throw shooting (and shooting in general). Using SportVU data , w... -
The odds of winning a game when down by 6 with 18 seconds left are approximately 250 to 1 . Last month , I rolled out a new version of m...
Popular Posts
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This post has been in the works for several months now, and is the result of a deep dive into the NBA's SportVU motion tracking data . ... -
In this post, I will describe my attempts to model the probability of a goal being scored in soccer. After correcting for team imbalances, I...
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2/3/2013 Update: A more mobile friendly version of the chart: Squares Payouts . My most recent two posts covered the concept of in-game ...
