Wednesday, September 11, 2013

NFL Week 2 Rankings

Deux jaguars du Pérou
Deux jaguars du Pérou
Here is your weekly check in on how the betting market ranks the NFL teams. With opening lines available for week 3 NFL games, I can now dispense with the Cantor Gaming lines to fill in the gaps in my regression analysis. The rankings below take the point spreads that Vegas sets for each NFL game and uses them to reverse engineer an implied team ranking. See here and here for more background.

The Jaguars Limbo Under a Low Bar

The Jaguars (somehow) found a way to be even worse than expected. A four point underdog against the Chiefs (at home, no less), and they lose by 26. Prior to their week 1 loss, the Jaguars were a 3 point underdog on the road against the Raiders in week 2. The market has since corrected, and the Jaguars are now a six point underdog, although part of that movement could be due to a perceived better than expected showing by the Raiders against the Colts.

The Jaguars were already ranked the worst team in my week 1 rankings, but their GPF (Generic Points Favored), dropped even further this week, from 7.6 to 8.9. They drop any lower and they rival the post-Manning, pre-Luck, Curtis Painter-led Colts of 2011 in terms of sheer numerical awfulness. An unfortunate start for the Jaguars new, supposedly more analytical, approach.

Here is the Week 2 ranking table. The Broncos remain on top. The two Pennsylvania-based NFL teams were like ships passing in the night, with the Eagles jumping from #18 to #11, and the Steelers sinking from #14 to #24.


Rank Team Week 1 GPF
1  DEN 1 7.2
2  SF 3 6.4
3  SEA 2 6.0
4  GB 6 5.5
5  NE 4 4.7
6  NO 5 3.8
7  HOU 9 3.4
8  ATL 7 2.4
9  CHI 8 2.3
10  CIN 11 2.0
11  PHI 18 1.9
12  WAS 16 0.8
13  DET 10 0.5
14  BAL 13 0.1
15  CAR 22 0.1
16  DAL 12 -0.1
17  IND 19 -0.1
18  KC 24 -0.2
19  NYG 15 -0.3
20  MIA 23 -0.4
21  TB 21 -1.5
22  STL 17 -1.8
23  MIN 20 -2.1
24  PIT 14 -2.4
25  TEN 28 -2.7
26  ARI 25 -2.9
27  SD 27 -3.4
28  CLE 26 -3.5
29  NYJ 29 -5.2
30  BUF 30 -5.6
31  OAK 31 -6.0
32  JAC 32 -8.9