Sunday, September 8, 2013

US Open Womens Final - Win Probability Graph

Here is the win probability graph for the US Open Womens Final, featuring Serena Williams against Victoria Azarenka. The match looked to be over mid way through the second set, with Serena leading 4-2 in the second set and threatening to go up 5-2, having two break points to give. Williams' win probability at that point was 99.5%. But Azarenka was able to hold serve in that game and ultimately force a tiebreaker. After winning the second set, Azarenka's win probability got as high as 40%, but Williams took control after that, rolling to a 6-1 victory in the final deciding set.

See here and here for more background on the win probability graphs. Here is Jeff Sackmann's detailed breakdown of the match.

Serena Williams766 Excitement4.3
Victoria Azarenka671 Comeback0.7


Point Probabilities (Model Inputs)
PlayerServeReturn
Williams0.6550.406
Azarenka0.5940.345

No comments:

Post a Comment