Sunday, September 8, 2013

Name Change

Ron Artest 2011
Ron Metta
When I started this blog a year and a half ago, I began with a fairly narrow scope: analysis and exploration of sports betting markets. Although my interests were broader than just the money bet on the game, my feeling at the time was that most of the interesting work in fundamental sports data analysis had already been done, and done much better than I could have hoped to do on my own. And while that is still largely the case, for better or worse, my focus on this blog has expanded beyond just "following the money".

So, as part of this mission creep, I've decided to rename this site. For one, I was looking for a name less, um, bureaucratic than Betting Market Analytics. And with fewer letters (so many letters in that url, especially with the Picking a website name in 2013 must be akin to picking out a personalized license plate: all the good ones are taken, forcing you into immediate compromise and uncomfortable questions ("Does anybody ever actually visit a .co domain?", "Can I use a 3 for an E?","What if I add a silent K?", etc.). While the pickings were slim, I was able to snag a domain name I was happy with:

That's not a word

True, inpredictable is not a word, but it's close enough. Inpredictable, of course, is a mangling of a real word: unpredictable. And if I've learned anything over my career in crunching numbers and making predictions, it's that numbers and analysis can make you smarter, but you're still going to be pretty dumb. The good news is, most everybody else is just as dumb (fans, pundits, former players, even your bookie). After all, "It's tough making predictions, especially about the future".

The "in" in "inpredictable" can refer to in-game win probabilities, a recent obsession of mine, and one I intend to be a core feature of this site (I've already built models for the NBA and tennis, and made some furtive stabs at an NFL model).

Team Rankings and Other Features

My betting market team rankings I produce for various sports (NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, NBA, and MLB) will continue to be shared here. The same goes for various other features, like the Turnover Index. I also plan on some upgrades to the format and layout of the site that should be rolling out soon.

All links referring to bettingmarketanalytics pages will automatically redirect to inpredictable, but it's probably a good idea to update your bookmarks.

At its core, this will remain a site devoted to analysis and understanding of the sporting (and sometimes betting) world. Hope you enjoy.


  1. I'd say it's a positive move. It seems like the sites that are focused on wagering over analysis get a bit degenerate. (Here are your picks for the week hummanah hummanah...)

    Speaking of, here's the results for my silly models so far:
    HFA Model:
    Broncos -7.5 (win)
    Bengals +3 (push)
    Hawks +3 (lose)
    Detroit -5.5 (win)
    Carolina +3.5 (lose)
    Kansas City -4 (win)
    St. Louis -4.5 (lose)
    San Francisco -4.5 (win)
    Giants +3.5 (lose)
    Eagles +3.5 TBD
    4-4-1 so far

    O/U Model
    Dolphins at Browns under 41 (win)
    Giants at Cowboys over 49 (win)
    2-0-0 so far

    ATS History Model
    Ravens +7.5 (lose)
    Patriots -9.5 (lose)
    Dolphins PK (win)
    Falcons +3 (lose)
    Steelers -7 (lose)
    Giants +3.5 (lose)
    Eagles +3.5 (TBD)
    1-5-0 so far

    1. On reflection, I tend to think I should try models based on starting QB and head coach to see if there's something to be had there.

    2. Agreed on gambling websites. Downright unseemly at times. Good luck with the picks this year. Betting on the NFL has to be one of the hardest ways to make money, like lumberjack hard (unless you're a bookie).

    3. It's just entertainment to me. (I really don't bet.) I'm posting here to keep myself honest. (Though I did have Hawks +3 when I meant Falcons +3 above.)

      Anyhow, the Eagles covered (with a little to spare) so its:
      HFA Model - 5-4-1
      O/U Model - 2-0-0
      ATS Model - 2-5-0

      Picks for Week 2:

      HFA Model:
      Falcons -7
      Bears -7
      Ravens -7
      Saints -3.5
      Jaguars +6
      Broncos -5
      Seahawks -3
      Steelers +7

      O/U Model:
      Dolphins v Colts Under 42.5
      Chargers v Eagles Over (TBD)
      Lions v Cardinals Over 47.5
      Broncos v Giants Over 54.5
      Steelers v Bengals Under 40.5

      ATS Model:
      Panthers -3
      Dolphins +3
      Ravens -7
      Saints -3.5
      Jaguars +6
      Seahawks -3
      Steelers +7

      I'm not so sure it's that easy to make money as a bookie in the short term, and I know I'd fail if I tried to set the lines. (Though inside information might help.)