Saturday, December 26, 2015

Turnover Index Week 16

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 16. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Of our two picks from week 15, one pushed and the other lost. But due to bet size, the net effect on bankroll amounted to a rounding error (for the second week in a row).

Here are the season to date results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 1 $1,000 $40 (4.1%) $37 $1,037
7 3 1 $1,037 $79 (7.7%) ($29) $1,008
9 2 1 $1,008 $66 (6.6%) ($51) $956
10 3 1 $956 $43 (4.6%) $3 $959
11 1 1 $959 $11 (1.2%) $10 $970
12 3 2 $970 $45 (4.7%) ($34) $935
13 1 1 $935 $13 (1.4%) $12 $948
14 1 1 $948 $0 (0.1%) $0 $948
15 2 0.5 $948 $12 (1.3%) ($0) $948


We are now 9-7-1 against the spread, with a negative ROI of -5%. We have two bets this week. Note that this will be the last week of bets for this season, as the Turnover Index takes off week 17.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Panthers @ Falcons 35 21 -14 -1.0 Falcons 52.4% 0.1%
Steelers @ Ravens 26 11 -15 -1.1 Ravens 52.6% 0.4%

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