NFL Playoff Implications Week 14

Here are the playoff implications for the NFL's week 14 games. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team. The results of the three Thanksgiving games have already been taken into account in the tables below.

Ranking Week 14 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 14 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
BUF @ PHI	42.3%
PIT @ CIN	39.8%
NYG @ MIA	24.7%
IND @ JAC	24.2%
TEN @ NYJ	24.0%
DAL @ GB	20.8%
NO @ TB	20.7%
NE @ HOU	18.8%
WAS @ CHI	18.5%
ATL @ CAR	15.5%
SD @ KC	14.8%
SEA @ BAL	7.6%
OAK @ DEN	2.1%
DET @ STL	0.2%
SF @ CLE	0.0%

Beyond Week 14

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 15-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
15	HOU @ IND	63.2%
16	WAS @ PHI	50.7%
16	NYG @ MIN	45.5%
17	PHI @ NYG	45.2%
17	NYJ @ BUF	44.4%
15	BUF @ WAS	36.4%
15	DEN @ PIT	35.8%
15	CHI @ MIN	33.2%
16	NE @ NYJ	33.0%
16	PIT @ BAL	32.1%

Week 14 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 14. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

MIN@ARZ SEA@BAL ATL@CAR WAS@CHI PIT@CIN SF@CLE OAK@DEN DAL@GB NE@HOU IND@JAC SD@KC NYG@MIA TEN@NYJ BUF@PHI DET@STL NO@TB  OR Select Team: ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ OAK PHI PIT SD SEA SF STL TB TEN WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
PIT @ CIN	58.9%	PIT	54.8%	78.4%	38.3%	-40.1%	19.7%
IND @ JAC	49.9%	IND	59.4%	71.8%	47.0%	-24.8%	12.4%
NYG @ MIA	46.7%	NYG	27.6%	39.2%	14.4%	-24.8%	12.4%
TEN @ NYJ	73.1%	NYJ	33.5%	13.3%	40.9%	27.6%	12.2%
BUF @ PHI	50.0%	PHI	43.7%	31.8%	55.5%	23.6%	11.8%
IND @ JAC	49.9%	HOU	40.8%	29.9%	51.7%	21.9%	10.9%
NO @ TB	65.3%	TB	20.2%	5.7%	27.9%	22.2%	10.6%
NE @ HOU	38.1%	HOU	40.8%	33.4%	52.8%	19.4%	9.4%
BUF @ PHI	50.0%	BUF	19.0%	28.3%	9.6%	-18.6%	9.3%
PIT @ CIN	58.9%	BUF	19.0%	8.7%	26.1%	17.4%	8.6%
NE @ HOU	38.1%	IND	59.4%	65.6%	49.4%	-16.2%	7.9%
PIT @ CIN	58.9%	NYJ	33.5%	24.2%	40.0%	15.8%	7.8%
ATL @ CAR	74.9%	ATL	6.2%	19.3%	1.8%	-17.5%	7.6%
SD @ KC	81.9%	KC	91.6%	75.5%	95.1%	19.7%	7.6%
WAS @ CHI	62.2%	WAS	22.2%	31.8%	16.4%	-15.3%	7.4%
TEN @ NYJ	73.1%	PIT	54.8%	66.3%	50.6%	-15.7%	6.9%
BUF @ PHI	50.0%	NYG	27.6%	34.2%	21.0%	-13.2%	6.6%
DAL @ GB	73.2%	DAL	7.4%	17.4%	3.7%	-13.7%	6.1%
NO @ TB	65.3%	MIN	78.0%	86.1%	73.7%	-12.4%	5.9%
NYG @ MIA	46.7%	PHI	43.7%	38.3%	49.8%	11.5%	5.8%
DAL @ GB	73.2%	GB	95.0%	87.2%	97.9%	10.7%	4.7%
BUF @ PHI	50.0%	PIT	54.8%	50.5%	59.2%	8.7%	4.4%
SEA @ BAL	15.7%	SEA	95.0%	96.7%	85.5%	-11.2%	4.1%
NYG @ MIA	46.7%	WAS	22.2%	19.1%	25.8%	6.7%	3.4%
BUF @ PHI	50.0%	WAS	22.2%	25.5%	18.9%	-6.6%	3.3%
SD @ KC	81.9%	NYJ	33.5%	40.4%	32.0%	-8.5%	3.3%
WAS @ CHI	62.2%	PHI	43.7%	39.6%	46.1%	6.5%	3.2%
NYG @ MIA	46.7%	DAL	7.4%	4.6%	10.5%	5.9%	3.0%
BUF @ PHI	50.0%	NYJ	33.5%	30.6%	36.4%	5.8%	2.9%
SD @ KC	81.9%	PIT	54.8%	60.3%	53.6%	-6.7%	2.6%
PIT @ CIN	58.9%	KC	91.6%	88.6%	93.6%	5.0%	2.5%
WAS @ CHI	62.2%	CHI	4.2%	1.0%	6.1%	5.1%	2.5%
WAS @ CHI	62.2%	NYG	27.6%	24.5%	29.5%	5.0%	2.4%
DAL @ GB	73.2%	TB	20.2%	24.0%	18.8%	-5.1%	2.3%
ATL @ CAR	74.9%	MIN	78.0%	74.2%	79.3%	5.2%	2.2%
DAL @ GB	73.2%	PHI	43.7%	40.0%	45.0%	5.0%	2.2%
TEN @ NYJ	73.1%	KC	91.6%	95.0%	90.3%	-4.8%	2.1%
TEN @ NYJ	73.1%	BUF	19.0%	22.4%	17.7%	-4.7%	2.1%
DAL @ GB	73.2%	NYG	27.6%	24.4%	28.8%	4.4%	2.0%
SEA @ BAL	15.7%	TB	20.2%	19.4%	24.6%	5.2%	1.9%
WAS @ CHI	62.2%	MIN	78.0%	80.5%	76.6%	-3.9%	1.9%
DAL @ GB	73.2%	WAS	22.2%	19.3%	23.3%	4.0%	1.8%
BUF @ PHI	50.0%	DAL	7.4%	9.1%	5.6%	-3.4%	1.7%
ATL @ CAR	74.9%	GB	95.0%	92.1%	96.0%	3.9%	1.7%
NO @ TB	65.3%	SEA	95.0%	97.0%	93.9%	-3.1%	1.5%
NO @ TB	65.3%	GB	95.0%	97.0%	93.9%	-3.1%	1.5%
ATL @ CAR	74.9%	SEA	95.0%	92.4%	95.8%	3.4%	1.5%
BUF @ PHI	50.0%	KC	91.6%	90.2%	92.9%	2.8%	1.4%
ATL @ CAR	74.9%	TB	20.2%	18.0%	21.0%	2.9%	1.3%
DAL @ GB	73.2%	ATL	6.2%	8.2%	5.5%	-2.7%	1.2%
WAS @ CHI	62.2%	DAL	7.4%	5.9%	8.2%	2.3%	1.1%
SD @ KC	81.9%	BUF	19.0%	21.2%	18.4%	-2.8%	1.1%
NO @ TB	65.3%	ATL	6.2%	7.4%	5.6%	-1.8%	0.9%
OAK @ DEN	73.1%	DEN	99.4%	98.0%	100.0%	1.9%	0.9%
PIT @ CIN	58.9%	HOU	40.8%	39.8%	41.5%	1.7%	0.8%
IND @ JAC	49.9%	JAC	0.8%	0.0%	1.6%	1.6%	0.8%
NE @ HOU	38.1%	NYJ	33.5%	34.1%	32.5%	-1.6%	0.8%
OAK @ DEN	73.1%	OAK	0.5%	1.7%	0.0%	-1.7%	0.7%
SEA @ BAL	15.7%	ATL	6.2%	5.9%	7.9%	2.0%	0.7%
SEA @ BAL	15.7%	GB	95.0%	94.7%	96.6%	1.9%	0.7%
BUF @ PHI	50.0%	HOU	40.8%	40.1%	41.4%	1.3%	0.7%
ATL @ CAR	74.9%	PHI	43.7%	42.6%	44.0%	1.5%	0.6%
ATL @ CAR	74.9%	CHI	4.2%	3.1%	4.5%	1.3%	0.6%
NE @ HOU	38.1%	JAC	0.8%	1.2%	0.2%	-1.1%	0.5%
OAK @ DEN	73.1%	BUF	19.0%	18.1%	19.3%	1.1%	0.5%
DAL @ GB	73.2%	SEA	95.0%	95.7%	94.7%	-1.0%	0.5%
NO @ TB	65.3%	NO	0.3%	0.8%	0.0%	-0.8%	0.4%
TEN @ NYJ	73.1%	DEN	99.4%	99.9%	99.3%	-0.6%	0.3%
SD @ KC	81.9%	OAK	0.5%	1.0%	0.3%	-0.6%	0.2%
NYG @ MIA	46.7%	MIA	0.2%	0.0%	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%
PIT @ CIN	58.9%	DEN	99.4%	99.2%	99.6%	0.4%	0.2%
TEN @ NYJ	73.1%	MIA	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%	-0.4%	0.2%
DET @ STL	39.9%	STL	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
SEA @ BAL	15.7%	STL	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%
PIT @ CIN	58.9%	OAK	0.5%	0.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%
PIT @ CIN	58.9%	MIA	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
TEN @ NYJ	73.1%	OAK	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%	-0.2%	0.1%
SD @ KC	81.9%	DEN	99.4%	99.7%	99.4%	-0.3%	0.1%
BUF @ PHI	50.0%	MIA	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
NE @ HOU	38.1%	DEN	99.4%	99.4%	99.6%	0.2%	0.1%
BUF @ PHI	50.0%	OAK	0.5%	0.4%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%
SEA @ BAL	15.7%	DET	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
DAL @ GB	73.2%	NO	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2%	0.1%
TEN @ NYJ	73.1%	TEN	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	0.1%
NE @ HOU	38.1%	NE	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	-0.1%	0.1%
PIT @ CIN	58.9%	NE	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	0.1%	0.1%
DET @ STL	39.9%	DET	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	0.1%
IND @ JAC	49.9%	TEN	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NE @ HOU	38.1%	TEN	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%
TEN @ NYJ	73.1%	NE	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	-0.1%	0.0%
PIT @ CIN	58.9%	CIN	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%