NFL Playoff Implications Week 13

Here are the playoff implications for the NFL's week 13 games. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team. The results of the three Thanksgiving games have already been taken into account in the tables below.

Ranking Week 13 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 13 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
NYJ @ NYG	43.8%
HOU @ BUF	40.7%
SEA @ MIN	36.5%
IND @ PIT	35.3%
DAL @ WAS	31.1%
ATL @ TB	25.8%
KC @ OAK	22.5%
PHI @ NE	12.9%
SF @ CHI	6.9%
JAC @ TEN	4.7%
ARZ @ STL	3.7%
CAR @ NO	2.9%
DEN @ SD	1.1%
BAL @ MIA	0.7%
CIN @ CLE	0.2%

Beyond Week 13

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 14-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
15	HOU @ IND	56.8%
17	NYJ @ BUF	44.2%
15	BUF @ WAS	43.9%
16	WAS @ PHI	40.8%
17	WAS @ DAL	35.0%
17	PHI @ NYG	33.8%
15	DEN @ PIT	32.5%
16	NE @ NYJ	32.5%
14	BUF @ PHI	32.0%
16	STL @ SEA	31.5%

Week 13 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 13. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

HOU@BUF SF@CHI CIN@CLE GB@DET BAL@MIA SEA@MIN PHI@NE CAR@NO NYJ@NYG KC@OAK IND@PIT DEN@SD ARZ@STL ATL@TB JAC@TEN DAL@WAS  OR Select Team: ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ OAK PHI PIT SD SEA SF STL TB TEN WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
SEA @ MIN	50.2%	SEA	65.2%	83.8%	46.9%	-36.9%	18.5%
DAL @ WAS	65.4%	WAS	50.2%	28.4%	61.7%	33.3%	15.8%
IND @ PIT	73.2%	PIT	38.7%	13.0%	48.1%	35.1%	15.5%
HOU @ BUF	60.5%	HOU	49.8%	67.9%	38.0%	-29.9%	14.6%
HOU @ BUF	60.5%	BUF	22.3%	5.6%	33.2%	27.5%	13.5%
ATL @ TB	55.5%	ATL	19.8%	34.5%	8.0%	-26.5%	13.2%
NYJ @ NYG	42.7%	NYG	32.5%	22.2%	46.3%	24.1%	11.9%
KC @ OAK	39.0%	KC	85.0%	94.4%	70.2%	-24.2%	11.8%
NYJ @ NYG	42.7%	NYJ	36.3%	45.3%	24.2%	-21.1%	10.4%
IND @ PIT	73.2%	IND	58.2%	72.9%	52.9%	-20.1%	8.9%
ATL @ TB	55.5%	TB	12.1%	2.9%	19.5%	16.7%	8.3%
DAL @ WAS	65.4%	NYG	32.5%	43.4%	26.8%	-16.6%	7.9%
NYJ @ NYG	42.7%	WAS	50.2%	56.6%	41.5%	-15.1%	7.5%
KC @ OAK	39.0%	OAK	7.3%	1.8%	15.9%	14.2%	6.9%
PHI @ NE	79.7%	PHI	16.2%	29.1%	12.9%	-16.2%	6.5%
SEA @ MIN	50.2%	MIN	92.9%	86.5%	99.1%	12.6%	6.3%
HOU @ BUF	60.5%	IND	58.2%	50.5%	63.3%	12.7%	6.2%
SEA @ MIN	50.2%	ATL	19.8%	14.9%	24.6%	9.7%	4.9%
SF @ CHI	74.2%	CHI	8.8%	2.3%	11.1%	8.8%	3.9%
DAL @ WAS	65.4%	DAL	2.9%	8.0%	0.1%	-7.9%	3.8%
DAL @ WAS	65.4%	PHI	16.2%	20.9%	13.7%	-7.3%	3.5%
IND @ PIT	73.2%	BUF	22.3%	27.8%	20.3%	-7.5%	3.3%
PHI @ NE	79.7%	WAS	50.2%	43.6%	51.8%	8.2%	3.3%
IND @ PIT	73.2%	NYJ	36.3%	41.2%	34.5%	-6.7%	3.0%
PHI @ NE	79.7%	NYG	32.5%	27.2%	33.9%	6.7%	2.7%
KC @ OAK	39.0%	PIT	38.7%	36.6%	41.9%	5.3%	2.6%
NYJ @ NYG	42.7%	PHI	16.2%	18.4%	13.2%	-5.2%	2.6%
SEA @ MIN	50.2%	TB	12.1%	9.6%	14.7%	5.1%	2.5%
JAC @ TEN	58.8%	JAC	2.6%	5.6%	0.5%	-5.2%	2.5%
NYJ @ NYG	42.7%	BUF	22.3%	20.1%	25.2%	5.1%	2.5%
NYJ @ NYG	42.7%	PIT	38.7%	36.6%	41.6%	5.0%	2.5%
ATL @ TB	55.5%	SEA	65.2%	62.7%	67.3%	4.6%	2.3%
HOU @ BUF	60.5%	PIT	38.7%	41.5%	36.9%	-4.6%	2.3%
HOU @ BUF	60.5%	NYJ	36.3%	39.0%	34.5%	-4.5%	2.2%
NYJ @ NYG	42.7%	KC	85.0%	83.2%	87.4%	4.3%	2.1%
ARZ @ STL	29.9%	STL	2.1%	0.8%	5.2%	4.3%	2.0%
IND @ PIT	73.2%	HOU	49.8%	46.9%	50.8%	3.9%	1.7%
CAR @ NO	27.0%	NO	1.1%	0.3%	3.4%	3.1%	1.4%
SEA @ MIN	50.2%	CHI	8.8%	7.4%	10.2%	2.8%	1.4%
CAR @ NO	27.0%	SEA	65.2%	66.0%	63.1%	-2.9%	1.3%
SEA @ MIN	50.2%	GB	95.8%	94.5%	97.0%	2.5%	1.3%
IND @ PIT	73.2%	KC	85.0%	87.1%	84.2%	-2.8%	1.3%
SF @ CHI	74.2%	SEA	65.2%	67.3%	64.5%	-2.8%	1.2%
JAC @ TEN	58.8%	IND	58.2%	56.8%	59.3%	2.5%	1.2%
NYJ @ NYG	42.7%	DAL	2.9%	3.8%	1.5%	-2.3%	1.1%
DEN @ SD	36.1%	DEN	99.0%	99.8%	97.6%	-2.2%	1.0%
NYJ @ NYG	42.7%	HOU	49.8%	48.9%	51.0%	2.1%	1.0%
KC @ OAK	39.0%	NYJ	36.3%	35.5%	37.6%	2.0%	1.0%
ATL @ TB	55.5%	CHI	8.8%	7.7%	9.7%	1.9%	1.0%
JAC @ TEN	58.8%	HOU	49.8%	48.7%	50.6%	1.9%	0.9%
NYJ @ NYG	42.7%	OAK	7.3%	6.5%	8.4%	1.8%	0.9%
NYJ @ NYG	42.7%	IND	58.2%	57.5%	59.2%	1.7%	0.9%
IND @ PIT	73.2%	OAK	7.3%	8.7%	6.8%	-1.9%	0.9%
SF @ CHI	74.2%	ATL	19.8%	21.3%	19.3%	-1.9%	0.8%
SEA @ MIN	50.2%	STL	2.1%	1.4%	2.8%	1.5%	0.7%
ARZ @ STL	29.9%	SEA	65.2%	65.7%	64.2%	-1.5%	0.7%
SF @ CHI	74.2%	MIN	92.9%	94.0%	92.5%	-1.5%	0.7%
HOU @ BUF	60.5%	JAC	2.6%	1.8%	3.1%	1.3%	0.7%
HOU @ BUF	60.5%	OAK	7.3%	8.0%	6.9%	-1.1%	0.6%
ARZ @ STL	29.9%	TB	12.1%	12.5%	11.3%	-1.2%	0.5%
SEA @ MIN	50.2%	DET	0.7%	0.2%	1.1%	0.9%	0.5%
ATL @ TB	55.5%	STL	2.1%	1.6%	2.5%	0.9%	0.5%
HOU @ BUF	60.5%	KC	85.0%	85.5%	84.6%	-0.9%	0.4%
SEA @ MIN	50.2%	NO	1.1%	0.7%	1.6%	0.9%	0.4%
BAL @ MIA	62.2%	BAL	0.3%	0.9%	0.0%	-0.9%	0.4%
ATL @ TB	55.5%	MIN	92.9%	92.4%	93.2%	0.8%	0.4%
PHI @ NE	79.7%	DAL	2.9%	2.1%	3.1%	1.0%	0.4%
IND @ PIT	73.2%	JAC	2.6%	2.0%	2.8%	0.9%	0.4%
ARZ @ STL	29.9%	ARZ	99.8%	100.0%	99.3%	-0.7%	0.3%
IND @ PIT	73.2%	DEN	99.0%	99.5%	98.8%	-0.7%	0.3%
BAL @ MIA	62.2%	MIA	0.4%	0.0%	0.6%	0.6%	0.3%
SF @ CHI	74.2%	GB	95.8%	96.2%	95.6%	-0.6%	0.3%
CAR @ NO	27.0%	GB	95.8%	95.9%	95.3%	-0.6%	0.3%
NYJ @ NYG	42.7%	DEN	99.0%	98.8%	99.3%	0.4%	0.2%
KC @ OAK	39.0%	DEN	99.0%	98.9%	99.3%	0.4%	0.2%
HOU @ BUF	60.5%	DEN	99.0%	99.2%	98.9%	-0.3%	0.2%
ATL @ TB	55.5%	DET	0.7%	0.5%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%
NYJ @ NYG	42.7%	MIA	0.4%	0.2%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%
ARZ @ STL	29.9%	NO	1.1%	1.2%	0.9%	-0.3%	0.1%
HOU @ BUF	60.5%	MIA	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	-0.2%	0.1%
ATL @ TB	55.5%	ARZ	99.8%	99.7%	99.8%	0.2%	0.1%
DAL @ WAS	65.4%	BAL	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
DEN @ SD	36.1%	SD	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
CIN @ CLE	20.6%	CIN	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	-0.2%	0.1%
CIN @ CLE	20.6%	BAL	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%
SEA @ MIN	50.2%	ARZ	99.8%	99.7%	99.8%	0.1%	0.1%
KC @ OAK	39.0%	SD	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
DAL @ WAS	65.4%	SD	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%