Sunday, November 3, 2013

Playoff Leverage - Week 9

Earlier this week, I added playoff seed projections to my daily NFL rankings, which are based on simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. In addition to projecting playoff seeds, I can take the same simulation dataset and use it to see which games have the biggest impact on the playoff picture.

You can find a similar feature at Advanced NFL Stats, which highlights the high leverage game of the week (it's GB-CHI according to their model). This post attempts to take a more detailed view, looking at how each particular game affects all teams, not just the two participants.

A Big Week for Baltimore

My playoff simulations indicate that the defending champion Ravens have a 29% chance of making it to the playoffs at this point. This week's matchup against the Browns will have a big impact on those chances. If the Ravens lose, their playoff hopes drop to 16%. And if they win, they increase to 39%. That swing, coupled with the fact that the game is fairly evenly matched (Baltimore has a 56% chance of winning at Cleveland), makes this the highest leverage situation of Week 9.

Note that high leverage doesn't just mean a big potential swing in outcome. If I buy a lottery ticket, there is a big difference between me winning and losing. But since the probability of winning is so small, the leverage is small as well. This article from Tom Tango explains the concept (fyi - I am using the recipe #2 version of the leverage calculation).

All Eyes on Cleveland

The Ravens-Browns game also has the highest total leverage of any Week 9 game. The Ravens, Browns, Dolphins, Bengals, and Titans all could see their playoff fortunes change as a result of this game. Here is a ranking of each game by total leverage (where I am just summing the playoff leverage as it applies to each team):

GameLeverage
BAL @ CLE 27.0%
ATL @ CAR 24.8%
SD @ WAS 24.7%
CHI @ GB 19.8%
MIN @ DAL 19.7%
TEN @ STL 18.0%
IND @ TEX 17.2%
PHI @ RAI 16.8%
NO @ NYJ 16.3%
PIT @ NE 15.8%
KC @ BUF 11.5%
TB @ SEA 7.7%

All Teams and All Games

The table below allows you to filter by game or team to see which matchups have the highest leverage. Are you a Colts fan? Then select "IND" from the team dropdown and get a rooting interest for each game this week. You probably didn't need to be told that the Colts winning and the Titans losing are both good things for Indy, but did you know that a Steelers victory over the Patriots improves the Colts' playoff chances by 0.7%? Although when the numbers get that small, it's hard to say when the leverage is just noise from the simulation. And it's not like you have to convince a Colts fan to root against the Pats.

Anyway, here is the table. Happy filtering. See the bottom of the post for an explanation of the table columns.

Select Game: <-or-> Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
BAL @ CLE 41.6% BAL 29.7% 39.1% 16.6% -22.5% 11.1%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% CAR 35.8% 19.1% 41.5% 22.4% 9.8%
SD @ WAS 47.3% SD 21.5% 28.7% 13.5% -15.2% 7.6%
TEN @ STL 39.4% TEN 21.3% 27.2% 12.2% -15.1% 7.4%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% DAL 72.5% 57.9% 76.0% 18.1% 7.1%
CHI @ GB 81.8% CHI 11.8% 25.5% 8.7% -16.8% 6.5%
CHI @ GB 81.8% GB 89.3% 76.2% 92.2% 16.0% 6.2%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% PHI 18.2% 25.1% 13.6% -11.5% 5.6%
PIT @ NE 71.5% NE 90.0% 81.1% 93.5% 12.4% 5.6%
IND @ TEX 40.9% IND 92.7% 96.6% 87.0% -9.6% 4.7%
IND @ TEX 40.9% TEX 5.6% 2.0% 10.9% 8.9% 4.4%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% NYJ 5.9% 3.4% 11.9% 8.6% 3.9%
KC @ BUF 39.5% BUF 5.6% 2.5% 10.3% 7.9% 3.9%
SD @ WAS 47.3% WAS 8.1% 4.7% 12.0% 7.3% 3.6%
SD @ WAS 47.3% BAL 29.7% 26.5% 33.3% 6.8% 3.4%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% DAL 72.5% 68.5% 75.2% 6.7% 3.3%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% PHI 18.2% 24.4% 16.7% -7.7% 3.0%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% CLE 3.8% 1.4% 7.1% 5.7% 2.8%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% WAS 8.1% 13.6% 6.8% -6.8% 2.7%
SD @ WAS 47.3% DAL 72.5% 74.9% 69.9% -5.0% 2.5%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% CIN 88.2% 86.2% 91.1% 5.0% 2.4%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% DET 62.3% 66.2% 60.9% -5.3% 2.3%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% NO 94.3% 95.8% 90.8% -5.0% 2.3%
KC @ BUF 39.5% KC 97.8% 99.5% 95.1% -4.4% 2.1%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% MIA 33.5% 31.9% 35.7% 3.8% 1.9%
PIT @ NE 71.5% PIT 2.4% 5.3% 1.2% -4.1% 1.9%
SD @ WAS 47.3% MIA 33.5% 31.8% 35.4% 3.6% 1.8%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% GB 89.3% 92.1% 88.4% -3.7% 1.6%
CHI @ GB 81.8% DET 62.3% 58.9% 63.0% 4.1% 1.6%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% CHI 11.8% 14.4% 10.8% -3.6% 1.6%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% MIA 33.5% 34.5% 31.1% -3.4% 1.6%
TEN @ STL 39.4% IND 92.7% 91.6% 94.3% 2.8% 1.4%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% CAR 35.8% 34.9% 37.8% 2.9% 1.3%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% NO 94.3% 96.5% 93.5% -3.0% 1.3%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% RAI 2.4% 0.8% 3.4% 2.6% 1.3%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% ARZ 10.7% 12.9% 10.0% -2.9% 1.3%
IND @ TEX 40.9% TEN 21.3% 20.3% 22.8% 2.5% 1.2%
TEN @ STL 39.4% MIA 33.5% 32.5% 34.9% 2.4% 1.2%
SD @ WAS 47.3% TEN 21.3% 20.3% 22.4% 2.1% 1.1%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% TEN 21.3% 20.4% 22.5% 2.1% 1.0%
PIT @ NE 71.5% MIA 33.5% 35.1% 32.9% -2.2% 1.0%
KC @ BUF 39.5% TEN 21.3% 22.1% 20.1% -2.0% 1.0%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% NYG 3.2% 5.2% 2.8% -2.4% 1.0%
TEN @ STL 39.4% BAL 29.7% 28.9% 30.9% 1.9% 0.9%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% SD 21.5% 22.1% 20.1% -2.0% 0.9%
PIT @ NE 71.5% NYJ 5.9% 7.4% 5.3% -2.1% 0.9%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% WAS 8.1% 7.0% 8.9% 1.8% 0.9%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% SF 93.6% 95.1% 93.0% -2.0% 0.9%
CHI @ GB 81.8% CAR 35.8% 37.6% 35.4% -2.2% 0.9%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% TEN 21.3% 23.0% 20.9% -2.2% 0.8%
TEN @ STL 39.4% TEX 5.6% 5.0% 6.6% 1.7% 0.8%
IND @ TEX 40.9% SD 21.5% 22.2% 20.5% -1.7% 0.8%
PIT @ NE 71.5% BUF 5.6% 6.8% 5.1% -1.8% 0.8%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% CIN 88.2% 86.6% 88.6% 2.0% 0.8%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% TEX 5.6% 5.0% 6.5% 1.6% 0.8%
TEN @ STL 39.4% SD 21.5% 20.9% 22.4% 1.5% 0.8%
KC @ BUF 39.5% CIN 88.2% 87.6% 89.1% 1.5% 0.7%
KC @ BUF 39.5% BAL 29.7% 30.3% 28.8% -1.5% 0.7%
SD @ WAS 47.3% KC 97.8% 97.1% 98.5% 1.4% 0.7%
PIT @ NE 71.5% CAR 35.8% 34.8% 36.2% 1.5% 0.7%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% NO 94.3% 93.5% 94.8% 1.3% 0.7%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% MIA 33.5% 34.3% 33.0% -1.3% 0.6%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% TEN 21.3% 20.2% 21.7% 1.4% 0.6%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% SD 21.5% 21.0% 22.2% 1.2% 0.6%
PIT @ NE 71.5% TEN 21.3% 20.4% 21.7% 1.3% 0.6%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% NYG 3.2% 2.5% 3.7% 1.2% 0.6%
PIT @ NE 71.5% PHI 18.2% 17.3% 18.6% 1.3% 0.6%
SD @ WAS 47.3% PHI 18.2% 18.8% 17.6% -1.1% 0.6%
TB @ SEA 91.7% ARZ 10.7% 8.8% 10.9% 2.1% 0.6%
IND @ TEX 40.9% PHI 18.2% 17.8% 18.9% 1.1% 0.5%
PIT @ NE 71.5% BAL 29.7% 30.6% 29.4% -1.2% 0.5%
IND @ TEX 40.9% DAL 72.5% 73.0% 71.9% -1.1% 0.5%
TEN @ STL 39.4% PHI 18.2% 18.6% 17.6% -1.1% 0.5%
PIT @ NE 71.5% DET 62.3% 61.5% 62.6% 1.2% 0.5%
IND @ TEX 40.9% CHI 11.8% 11.3% 12.4% 1.0% 0.5%
IND @ TEX 40.9% BAL 29.7% 29.3% 30.3% 1.0% 0.5%
KC @ BUF 39.5% NE 90.0% 90.4% 89.3% -1.0% 0.5%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% CAR 35.8% 36.4% 35.4% -1.0% 0.5%
TB @ SEA 91.7% GB 89.3% 90.8% 89.2% -1.6% 0.4%
SD @ WAS 47.3% GB 89.3% 89.7% 88.8% -0.9% 0.4%
TEN @ STL 39.4% NYJ 5.9% 5.6% 6.5% 0.9% 0.4%
SD @ WAS 47.3% CHI 11.8% 11.3% 12.2% 0.9% 0.4%
TEN @ STL 39.4% CLE 3.8% 3.4% 4.3% 0.9% 0.4%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% CHI 11.8% 11.5% 12.4% 0.9% 0.4%
CHI @ GB 81.8% DAL 72.5% 73.4% 72.3% -1.1% 0.4%
TB @ SEA 91.7% DET 62.3% 63.7% 62.2% -1.5% 0.4%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% BUF 5.6% 6.3% 5.3% -0.9% 0.4%
PIT @ NE 71.5% IND 92.7% 93.3% 92.4% -0.9% 0.4%
SD @ WAS 47.3% RAI 2.4% 2.0% 2.8% 0.8% 0.4%
PIT @ NE 71.5% NYG 3.2% 3.9% 3.0% -0.9% 0.4%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% ATL 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% -0.9% 0.4%
PIT @ NE 71.5% CHI 11.8% 12.4% 11.5% -0.9% 0.4%
TEN @ STL 39.4% CIN 88.2% 87.9% 88.7% 0.8% 0.4%
IND @ TEX 40.9% NO 94.3% 94.6% 93.8% -0.8% 0.4%
CHI @ GB 81.8% TEN 21.3% 22.1% 21.1% -1.0% 0.4%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% BAL 29.7% 29.1% 29.9% 0.9% 0.4%
TEN @ STL 39.4% BUF 5.6% 5.3% 6.0% 0.8% 0.4%
CHI @ GB 81.8% NO 94.3% 95.1% 94.1% -0.9% 0.4%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% DET 62.3% 61.8% 62.6% 0.7% 0.4%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% PHI 18.2% 17.9% 18.6% 0.7% 0.4%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% BAL 29.7% 29.9% 29.2% -0.8% 0.4%
TEN @ STL 39.4% NE 90.0% 89.7% 90.4% 0.7% 0.4%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% PHI 18.2% 18.0% 18.8% 0.8% 0.4%
TB @ SEA 91.7% SEA 99.7% 98.5% 99.8% 1.3% 0.3%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% RAI 2.4% 2.1% 2.8% 0.7% 0.3%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% NYJ 5.9% 5.2% 6.1% 0.9% 0.3%
IND @ TEX 40.9% ARZ 10.7% 11.0% 10.3% -0.7% 0.3%
SD @ WAS 47.3% PIT 2.4% 2.7% 2.0% -0.7% 0.3%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% WAS 8.1% 8.7% 7.9% -0.8% 0.3%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% SF 93.6% 93.3% 94.1% 0.7% 0.3%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% SD 21.5% 22.2% 21.3% -0.9% 0.3%
CHI @ GB 81.8% BAL 29.7% 30.4% 29.5% -0.9% 0.3%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% CIN 88.2% 88.4% 87.7% -0.7% 0.3%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% BUF 5.6% 5.3% 6.0% 0.7% 0.3%
TB @ SEA 91.7% NO 94.3% 93.2% 94.4% 1.2% 0.3%
CHI @ GB 81.8% TEX 5.6% 4.9% 5.8% 0.8% 0.3%
SD @ WAS 47.3% NYG 3.2% 3.6% 2.9% -0.6% 0.3%
IND @ TEX 40.9% RAI 2.4% 2.6% 2.0% -0.6% 0.3%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% IND 92.7% 92.0% 92.8% 0.8% 0.3%
KC @ BUF 39.5% SD 21.5% 21.8% 21.1% -0.6% 0.3%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% CAR 35.8% 36.4% 35.7% -0.8% 0.3%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% TEX 5.6% 5.1% 5.8% 0.7% 0.3%
TEN @ STL 39.4% CHI 11.8% 11.5% 12.1% 0.6% 0.3%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% KC 97.8% 97.5% 98.1% 0.6% 0.3%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% IND 92.7% 93.2% 92.5% -0.7% 0.3%
PIT @ NE 71.5% SD 21.5% 22.0% 21.3% -0.6% 0.3%
TB @ SEA 91.7% NE 90.0% 89.0% 90.0% 1.1% 0.3%
SD @ WAS 47.3% IND 92.7% 92.4% 93.0% 0.6% 0.3%
KC @ BUF 39.5% RAI 2.4% 2.1% 2.7% 0.6% 0.3%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% ARZ 10.7% 11.0% 10.4% -0.6% 0.3%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% BUF 5.6% 5.8% 5.1% -0.6% 0.3%
SD @ WAS 47.3% TEX 5.6% 5.4% 5.9% 0.6% 0.3%
TB @ SEA 91.7% CAR 35.8% 34.9% 35.9% 1.0% 0.3%
TB @ SEA 91.7% SD 21.5% 20.6% 21.6% 1.0% 0.3%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% PIT 2.4% 2.9% 2.2% -0.6% 0.3%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% PIT 2.4% 2.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.3%
KC @ BUF 39.5% DET 62.3% 62.5% 61.9% -0.6% 0.3%
PIT @ NE 71.5% GB 89.3% 89.7% 89.1% -0.6% 0.3%
KC @ BUF 39.5% IND 92.7% 92.4% 93.0% 0.5% 0.3%
KC @ BUF 39.5% CLE 3.8% 4.0% 3.4% -0.5% 0.3%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% BAL 29.7% 29.4% 29.9% 0.5% 0.3%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% BAL 29.7% 30.2% 29.6% -0.6% 0.3%
TEN @ STL 39.4% NO 94.3% 94.5% 94.0% -0.5% 0.3%
TEN @ STL 39.4% DET 62.3% 62.1% 62.6% 0.5% 0.3%
TB @ SEA 91.7% BUF 5.6% 6.4% 5.5% -0.9% 0.3%
PIT @ NE 71.5% NO 94.3% 94.7% 94.1% -0.6% 0.2%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% CIN 88.2% 88.5% 88.0% -0.5% 0.2%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% TEN 21.3% 21.6% 21.1% -0.5% 0.2%
KC @ BUF 39.5% TEX 5.6% 5.8% 5.3% -0.5% 0.2%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% SF 93.6% 93.3% 93.8% 0.5% 0.2%
PIT @ NE 71.5% ARZ 10.7% 11.1% 10.6% -0.5% 0.2%
CHI @ GB 81.8% ARZ 10.7% 10.2% 10.8% 0.6% 0.2%
CHI @ GB 81.8% SF 93.6% 94.1% 93.4% -0.6% 0.2%
TEN @ STL 39.4% GB 89.3% 89.5% 89.0% -0.5% 0.2%
PIT @ NE 71.5% TEX 5.6% 6.0% 5.5% -0.5% 0.2%
TEN @ STL 39.4% WAS 8.1% 7.9% 8.4% 0.5% 0.2%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% DAL 72.5% 72.7% 72.3% -0.5% 0.2%
PIT @ NE 71.5% CLE 3.8% 4.1% 3.6% -0.5% 0.2%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% CLE 3.8% 3.4% 3.9% 0.5% 0.2%
TB @ SEA 91.7% BAL 29.7% 28.9% 29.8% 0.8% 0.2%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% NO 94.3% 94.5% 94.0% -0.5% 0.2%
TB @ SEA 91.7% SF 93.6% 94.3% 93.5% -0.8% 0.2%
CHI @ GB 81.8% CLE 3.8% 3.3% 3.9% 0.6% 0.2%
TEN @ STL 39.4% DAL 72.5% 72.4% 72.8% 0.5% 0.2%
TB @ SEA 91.7% CHI 11.8% 12.5% 11.7% -0.8% 0.2%
CHI @ GB 81.8% NYG 3.2% 2.8% 3.3% 0.5% 0.2%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% KC 97.8% 98.1% 97.7% -0.5% 0.2%
IND @ TEX 40.9% NE 90.0% 90.1% 89.7% -0.4% 0.2%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% CLE 3.8% 3.9% 3.5% -0.4% 0.2%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% NE 90.0% 89.8% 90.2% 0.4% 0.2%
KC @ BUF 39.5% SF 93.6% 93.4% 93.8% 0.4% 0.2%
IND @ TEX 40.9% CIN 88.2% 88.1% 88.5% 0.4% 0.2%
KC @ BUF 39.5% NYG 3.2% 3.4% 3.0% -0.4% 0.2%
CHI @ GB 81.8% PHI 18.2% 17.8% 18.3% 0.5% 0.2%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% CHI 11.8% 11.5% 11.9% 0.4% 0.2%
TB @ SEA 91.7% TEN 21.3% 21.9% 21.2% -0.7% 0.2%
CHI @ GB 81.8% NE 90.0% 89.6% 90.0% 0.5% 0.2%
SD @ WAS 47.3% SF 93.6% 93.7% 93.4% -0.4% 0.2%
CHI @ GB 81.8% CIN 88.2% 88.6% 88.1% -0.5% 0.2%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% KC 97.8% 97.7% 98.0% 0.4% 0.2%
IND @ TEX 40.9% DET 62.3% 62.4% 62.1% -0.4% 0.2%
PIT @ NE 71.5% CIN 88.2% 87.9% 88.3% 0.4% 0.2%
KC @ BUF 39.5% WAS 8.1% 8.0% 8.4% 0.4% 0.2%
KC @ BUF 39.5% PIT 2.4% 2.2% 2.6% 0.4% 0.2%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% PIT 2.4% 2.0% 2.5% 0.4% 0.2%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% TEN 21.3% 21.2% 21.6% 0.4% 0.2%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% MIA 33.5% 33.1% 33.6% 0.4% 0.2%
SD @ WAS 47.3% CAR 35.8% 36.0% 35.6% -0.3% 0.2%
CHI @ GB 81.8% BUF 5.6% 5.2% 5.7% 0.4% 0.2%
TEN @ STL 39.4% SF 93.6% 93.7% 93.4% -0.3% 0.2%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% TEX 5.6% 5.8% 5.5% -0.3% 0.2%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% NYJ 5.9% 5.8% 6.1% 0.3% 0.2%
TEN @ STL 39.4% PIT 2.4% 2.3% 2.6% 0.3% 0.2%
SD @ WAS 47.3% BUF 5.6% 5.4% 5.7% 0.3% 0.2%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% GB 89.3% 89.5% 89.2% -0.3% 0.2%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% DET 62.3% 62.2% 62.5% 0.3% 0.1%
SD @ WAS 47.3% NE 90.0% 90.1% 89.8% -0.3% 0.1%
TEN @ STL 39.4% RAI 2.4% 2.3% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1%
IND @ TEX 40.9% NYJ 5.9% 6.0% 5.7% -0.3% 0.1%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% NYG 3.2% 3.3% 3.0% -0.3% 0.1%
KC @ BUF 39.5% NO 94.3% 94.2% 94.5% 0.3% 0.1%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% CLE 3.8% 4.1% 3.7% -0.4% 0.1%
IND @ TEX 40.9% NYG 3.2% 3.1% 3.4% 0.3% 0.1%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% NYJ 5.9% 6.2% 5.8% -0.3% 0.1%
SD @ WAS 47.3% CIN 88.2% 88.1% 88.4% 0.3% 0.1%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% DET 62.3% 62.4% 62.1% -0.3% 0.1%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% DAL 72.5% 72.6% 72.3% -0.3% 0.1%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% CAR 35.8% 35.7% 36.0% 0.3% 0.1%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% TEX 5.6% 5.7% 5.4% -0.3% 0.1%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% NE 90.0% 90.0% 89.7% -0.3% 0.1%
KC @ BUF 39.5% MIA 33.5% 33.6% 33.3% -0.3% 0.1%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% GB 89.3% 89.4% 89.1% -0.3% 0.1%
IND @ TEX 40.9% SF 93.6% 93.5% 93.7% 0.3% 0.1%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% GB 89.3% 89.2% 89.5% 0.3% 0.1%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% RAI 2.4% 2.5% 2.2% -0.3% 0.1%
PIT @ NE 71.5% KC 97.8% 98.0% 97.7% -0.3% 0.1%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% BUF 5.6% 5.8% 5.5% -0.3% 0.1%
TB @ SEA 91.7% MIA 33.5% 33.9% 33.5% -0.4% 0.1%
IND @ TEX 40.9% SEA 99.7% 99.6% 99.9% 0.2% 0.1%
TB @ SEA 91.7% PIT 2.4% 2.8% 2.4% -0.4% 0.1%
CHI @ GB 81.8% KC 97.8% 98.0% 97.7% -0.3% 0.1%
CHI @ GB 81.8% IND 92.7% 92.4% 92.7% 0.3% 0.1%
KC @ BUF 39.5% CHI 11.8% 11.7% 11.9% 0.2% 0.1%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% CIN 88.2% 88.4% 88.2% -0.3% 0.1%
SD @ WAS 47.3% CLE 3.8% 3.9% 3.7% -0.2% 0.1%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% TEX 5.6% 5.8% 5.6% -0.3% 0.1%
SD @ WAS 47.3% NYJ 5.9% 6.0% 5.8% -0.2% 0.1%
SD @ WAS 47.3% ARZ 10.7% 10.6% 10.8% 0.2% 0.1%
TB @ SEA 91.7% DAL 72.5% 72.9% 72.5% -0.4% 0.1%
IND @ TEX 40.9% KC 97.8% 97.9% 97.7% -0.2% 0.1%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% SF 93.6% 93.5% 93.7% 0.2% 0.1%
IND @ TEX 40.9% GB 89.3% 89.4% 89.2% -0.2% 0.1%
TB @ SEA 91.7% KC 97.8% 97.5% 97.8% 0.3% 0.1%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% ATL 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% DEN 99.7% 99.8% 99.6% -0.2% 0.1%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% NE 90.0% 90.1% 89.9% -0.2% 0.1%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% DEN 99.7% 99.9% 99.7% -0.2% 0.1%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% CHI 11.8% 11.9% 11.7% -0.2% 0.1%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% SD 21.5% 21.4% 21.6% 0.2% 0.1%
PIT @ NE 71.5% WAS 8.1% 8.3% 8.1% -0.2% 0.1%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% ATL 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
IND @ TEX 40.9% CLE 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% -0.2% 0.1%
CHI @ GB 81.8% SD 21.5% 21.3% 21.5% 0.2% 0.1%
KC @ BUF 39.5% ARZ 10.7% 10.7% 10.8% 0.2% 0.1%
TB @ SEA 91.7% CIN 88.2% 88.5% 88.2% -0.3% 0.1%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% PIT 2.4% 2.5% 2.3% -0.2% 0.1%
KC @ BUF 39.5% CAR 35.8% 35.9% 35.7% -0.2% 0.1%
TB @ SEA 91.7% DEN 99.7% 100.0% 99.7% -0.3% 0.1%
IND @ TEX 40.9% DEN 99.7% 99.7% 99.8% 0.2% 0.1%
CHI @ GB 81.8% MIA 33.5% 33.6% 33.5% -0.2% 0.1%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% DET 62.3% 62.4% 62.2% -0.2% 0.1%
KC @ BUF 39.5% GB 89.3% 89.4% 89.2% -0.1% 0.1%
CHI @ GB 81.8% ATL 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
TB @ SEA 91.7% ATL 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% -0.3% 0.1%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% CLE 3.8% 3.9% 3.7% -0.1% 0.1%
IND @ TEX 40.9% CAR 35.8% 35.7% 35.9% 0.1% 0.1%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% RAI 2.4% 2.2% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% PIT 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% -0.1% 0.1%
TB @ SEA 91.7% WAS 8.1% 8.4% 8.1% -0.2% 0.1%
TEN @ STL 39.4% DEN 99.7% 99.7% 99.8% 0.1% 0.1%
TEN @ STL 39.4% STL 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
SD @ WAS 47.3% DEN 99.7% 99.7% 99.8% 0.1% 0.1%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% SF 93.6% 93.7% 93.5% -0.2% 0.1%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% STL 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
TEN @ STL 39.4% KC 97.8% 97.8% 97.7% -0.1% 0.1%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% NYJ 5.9% 6.0% 5.9% -0.1% 0.1%
PIT @ NE 71.5% DAL 72.5% 72.6% 72.5% -0.1% 0.1%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% IND 92.7% 92.7% 92.6% -0.1% 0.1%
TB @ SEA 91.7% IND 92.7% 92.9% 92.6% -0.2% 0.1%
CHI @ GB 81.8% SEA 99.7% 99.8% 99.7% -0.2% 0.1%
PIT @ NE 71.5% DEN 99.7% 99.6% 99.8% 0.1% 0.1%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% NO 94.3% 94.2% 94.3% 0.1% 0.1%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% DAL 72.5% 72.6% 72.5% -0.1% 0.1%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% SD 21.5% 21.4% 21.6% 0.1% 0.1%
CHI @ GB 81.8% WAS 8.1% 8.2% 8.1% -0.1% 0.1%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% RAI 2.4% 2.5% 2.3% -0.1% 0.1%
PIT @ NE 71.5% ATL 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% -0.1% 0.1%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% KC 97.8% 97.8% 97.7% -0.1% 0.1%
KC @ BUF 39.5% SEA 99.7% 99.8% 99.6% -0.1% 0.1%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% CHI 11.8% 11.7% 11.8% 0.1% 0.1%
PIT @ NE 71.5% SEA 99.7% 99.8% 99.7% -0.1% 0.1%
TEN @ STL 39.4% SEA 99.7% 99.7% 99.8% 0.1% 0.0%
IND @ TEX 40.9% WAS 8.1% 8.1% 8.2% 0.1% 0.0%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% ATL 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% -0.1% 0.0%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% NE 90.0% 90.0% 89.9% -0.1% 0.0%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% GB 89.3% 89.2% 89.3% 0.1% 0.0%
KC @ BUF 39.5% DEN 99.7% 99.7% 99.8% 0.1% 0.0%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% MIA 33.5% 33.6% 33.5% -0.1% 0.0%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% WAS 8.1% 8.1% 8.2% 0.1% 0.0%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% NE 90.0% 89.9% 90.0% 0.1% 0.0%
KC @ BUF 39.5% NYJ 5.9% 6.0% 5.9% -0.1% 0.0%
TB @ SEA 91.7% NYJ 5.9% 6.1% 5.9% -0.1% 0.0%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% ATL 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
TEN @ STL 39.4% NYG 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0%
IND @ TEX 40.9% PIT 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% -0.1% 0.0%
SD @ WAS 47.3% NO 94.3% 94.2% 94.3% 0.1% 0.0%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% BUF 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% -0.1% 0.0%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% SEA 99.7% 99.8% 99.7% -0.1% 0.0%
TB @ SEA 91.7% NYG 3.2% 3.1% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0%
SD @ WAS 47.3% ATL 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% -0.1% 0.0%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% SEA 99.7% 99.7% 99.7% -0.1% 0.0%
TEN @ STL 39.4% ATL 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% ARZ 10.7% 10.7% 10.8% 0.1% 0.0%
PIT @ NE 71.5% SF 93.6% 93.5% 93.6% 0.1% 0.0%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% ARZ 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% -0.1% 0.0%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% DEN 99.7% 99.8% 99.7% -0.0% 0.0%
TB @ SEA 91.7% RAI 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0%
PIT @ NE 71.5% RAI 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% -0.1% 0.0%
IND @ TEX 40.9% ATL 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% -0.0% 0.0%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% NYG 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% -0.0% 0.0%
PIT @ NE 71.5% STL 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
KC @ BUF 39.5% PHI 18.2% 18.2% 18.2% -0.0% 0.0%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% SEA 99.7% 99.7% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0%
TB @ SEA 91.7% STL 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% IND 92.7% 92.6% 92.7% 0.0% 0.0%
CHI @ GB 81.8% STL 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.0% 0.0%
IND @ TEX 40.9% MIA 33.5% 33.5% 33.5% 0.0% 0.0%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% STL 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% 0.0%
CHI @ GB 81.8% RAI 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% -0.0% 0.0%
TB @ SEA 91.7% PHI 18.2% 18.3% 18.2% -0.1% 0.0%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% IND 92.7% 92.7% 92.6% -0.0% 0.0%
IND @ TEX 40.9% STL 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% 0.0%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% STL 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.0% 0.0%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% STL 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
KC @ BUF 39.5% STL 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.0% 0.0%
TB @ SEA 91.7% TEX 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% SEA 99.7% 99.7% 99.7% -0.0% 0.0%
KC @ BUF 39.5% ATL 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% -0.0% 0.0%
CHI @ GB 81.8% PIT 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
TEN @ STL 39.4% CAR 35.8% 35.8% 35.8% -0.0% 0.0%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% SEA 99.7% 99.7% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% DEN 99.7% 99.7% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0%
CHI @ GB 81.8% NYJ 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% -0.0% 0.0%
CHI @ GB 81.8% DEN 99.7% 99.7% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0%
SD @ WAS 47.3% STL 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.0% 0.0%
SD @ WAS 47.3% DET 62.3% 62.3% 62.3% 0.0% 0.0%
IND @ TEX 40.9% BUF 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% -0.0% 0.0%
SD @ WAS 47.3% SEA 99.7% 99.7% 99.7% -0.0% 0.0%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% KC 97.8% 97.8% 97.8% 0.0% 0.0%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% NYG 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% -0.0% 0.0%
TB @ SEA 91.7% CLE 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% STL 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.0% 0.0%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% WAS 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0%
KC @ BUF 39.5% DAL 72.5% 72.5% 72.5% 0.0% 0.0%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% ARZ 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% -0.0% 0.0%
TEN @ STL 39.4% ARZ 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% -0.0% 0.0%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% PHI 18.2% 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% DEN 99.7% 99.7% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0%
KC @ BUF 39.5% JAC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
KC @ BUF 39.5% MIN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
KC @ BUF 39.5% TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% JAC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% MIN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ATL @ CAR 74.5% TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% JAC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% MIN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
BAL @ CLE 41.6% TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% JAC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% MIN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MIN @ DAL 80.8% TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CHI @ GB 81.8% JAC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CHI @ GB 81.8% MIN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CHI @ GB 81.8% TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
PIT @ NE 71.5% JAC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
PIT @ NE 71.5% MIN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
PIT @ NE 71.5% TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% JAC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% MIN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NO @ NYJ 29.7% TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% JAC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% MIN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
PHI @ RAI 59.8% TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB @ SEA 91.7% JAC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB @ SEA 91.7% MIN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB @ SEA 91.7% TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TEN @ STL 39.4% JAC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TEN @ STL 39.4% MIN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TEN @ STL 39.4% TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IND @ TEX 40.9% JAC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IND @ TEX 40.9% MIN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IND @ TEX 40.9% TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SD @ WAS 47.3% JAC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SD @ WAS 47.3% MIN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SD @ WAS 47.3% TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

  • game prob - probability of home team winning
  • team - the team whose playoff leverage is being measured
  • playoff prob - probability of team making the playoffs (prior to this week's game)
  • loses - the team's playoff chances if the home team in the game selected loses
  • wins - the team's playoff chances if the home team in the game selected wins
  • swing - the differential in playoff probability as a result of the game outcome
  • leverage - the expected change in playoff probability as a result of the game

3 comments:

  1. This is fantastic. It's something I've wondered about quite a bit in baseball as well (and really, any sport in which I have a rooting interest).

    Something surprises me here, though. Filtering on the Jets, the Minnesota-Dallas game had 0.3% leverage, while the KC-Buffalo game reads as zero leverage. It seems counter-intuitive that a game in the opposite conference, between two teams that the Jets don't play, has more effect on their playoff hopes than a game between a team they're chasing in the Wild Card (not that they have much of a shot at catching KC) and a divisional opponent. Seeing a similar effect with the Eagles, where the Pittsburgh-New England game has just as much leverage as the San Diego-Washington game. Any thoughts on why this might be the case?

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Vijay. To be honest, I'm not sure what's going on there. As you said, the Jets don't play the Vikings or Cowboys this year, so it's not related to common opponents tiebreakers. The probabilities themselves come from my 10,000 run simulation. So the sample size for the Dallas wins scenario is about 8,000 and the sample size for the Vikings win scenario is about 2,000.

      I know there's a way to calculate whether those two sample means could have come from the same distribution, but I'm not sure what the formula is.

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    2. That makes sense. I ran the numbers through a binomial distribution taking into account the sample size, using the Jets independent probability as their "true" probability, and measuring significance; I'll probably do that in the future. A little surprised about the KC-Buffalo game not meaning anything, but I suppose the Bills were too far behind and the Chiefs too far ahead for it to matter.

      Still, it's a great tool and I expect to use it weekly.

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