Playoff Implications - Week 12

Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

Ranking Week 12 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 12 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
CAR @ MIA	37.5%
NYJ @ BAL	26.9%
DAL @ NYG	26.6%
SF @ WAS	25.7%
CHI @ STL	25.0%
IND @ ARZ	21.0%
TB @ DET	19.9%
MIN @ GB	15.9%
PIT @ CLE	15.1%
TEN @ RAI	10.3%
SD @ KC	5.1%
NO @ ATL	2.9%
DEN @ NE	1.7%
JAC @ TEX	0.8%

The top game this week, by a good margin, is Carolina-Miami.

Beyond Week 12

I can also use my simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 13-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
17	PHI @ DAL	49.3%
13	GB @ DET	48.4%
16	CHI @ PHI	44.4%
14	DET @ PHI	44.0%
13	ARZ @ PHI	43.2%
14	DAL @ CHI	41.2%
15	GB @ DAL	38.5%
17	GB @ CHI	37.8%
15	BAL @ DET	37.5%
17	SF @ ARZ	37.3%

Nine of the top ten games feature matches involving either the NFC North or NFC East.

Week 12 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 12. You can filter by game or team below. As mentioned above, I have already weeded out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

CAR@MIA IND@ARZ NO@ATL NYJ@BAL PIT@CLE TB@DET MIN@GB SD@KC DEN@NE DAL@NYG TEN@RAI CHI@STL JAC@TEX SF@WAS

<-or->

Select Team:

ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ PHI PIT RAI SD SEA SF STL TB TEN TEX WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
DAL @ NYG	58.6%	DAL	45.3%	61.4%	33.9%	-27.5%	13.5%
NYJ @ BAL	62.7%	NYJ	24.6%	42.0%	14.3%	-27.8%	13.4%
SF @ WAS	29.5%	SF	68.6%	77.2%	48.0%	-29.2%	13.3%
CHI @ STL	53.6%	CHI	33.2%	46.5%	21.7%	-24.8%	12.4%
CAR @ MIA	34.5%	MIA	28.3%	20.0%	44.0%	24.0%	11.4%
TB @ DET	78.7%	DET	53.3%	32.9%	58.9%	26.0%	10.6%
NYJ @ BAL	62.7%	BAL	16.2%	3.0%	24.1%	21.1%	10.2%
IND @ ARZ	58.8%	ARZ	23.6%	11.9%	31.8%	19.9%	9.8%
MIN @ GB	65.8%	GB	27.7%	16.0%	33.8%	17.8%	8.5%
PIT @ CLE	57.1%	PIT	11.6%	20.4%	4.9%	-15.5%	7.7%
CAR @ MIA	34.5%	CAR	88.8%	94.3%	78.2%	-16.1%	7.6%
DAL @ NYG	58.6%	PHI	54.4%	46.6%	60.0%	13.4%	6.6%
TEN @ RAI	46.1%	TEN	9.0%	14.2%	2.8%	-11.3%	5.7%
IND @ ARZ	58.8%	SF	68.6%	75.3%	63.9%	-11.3%	5.6%
TB @ DET	78.7%	CHI	33.2%	43.6%	30.4%	-13.3%	5.4%
PIT @ CLE	57.1%	CLE	8.3%	2.4%	12.7%	10.2%	5.1%
DAL @ NYG	58.6%	NYG	6.1%	0.3%	10.1%	9.8%	4.8%
SF @ WAS	29.5%	ARZ	23.6%	20.5%	31.0%	10.5%	4.8%
CHI @ STL	53.6%	DET	53.3%	48.4%	57.6%	9.2%	4.6%
MIN @ GB	65.8%	DET	53.3%	59.2%	50.3%	-9.0%	4.3%
SD @ KC	66.0%	SD	4.9%	10.4%	2.0%	-8.4%	4.0%
CHI @ STL	53.6%	GB	27.7%	23.6%	31.2%	7.6%	3.8%
CAR @ MIA	34.5%	NYJ	24.6%	26.6%	20.9%	-5.7%	2.7%
CAR @ MIA	34.5%	ARZ	23.6%	21.8%	27.1%	5.3%	2.5%
SF @ WAS	29.5%	CHI	33.2%	31.7%	36.8%	5.1%	2.3%
TB @ DET	78.7%	GB	27.7%	32.1%	26.5%	-5.6%	2.3%
IND @ ARZ	58.8%	CAR	88.8%	91.5%	86.8%	-4.6%	2.3%
MIN @ GB	65.8%	CHI	33.2%	36.1%	31.7%	-4.4%	2.1%
TEN @ RAI	46.1%	RAI	2.3%	0.5%	4.5%	4.0%	2.0%
CHI @ STL	53.6%	SF	68.6%	66.6%	70.3%	3.7%	1.8%
NO @ ATL	22.9%	NO	98.5%	99.5%	95.2%	-4.3%	1.8%
CAR @ MIA	34.5%	CHI	33.2%	32.0%	35.6%	3.6%	1.7%
CAR @ MIA	34.5%	SF	68.6%	67.4%	70.9%	3.5%	1.7%
CAR @ MIA	34.5%	BAL	16.2%	17.4%	14.0%	-3.4%	1.6%
SF @ WAS	29.5%	CAR	88.8%	87.7%	91.2%	3.5%	1.6%
CAR @ MIA	34.5%	CLE	8.3%	9.3%	6.2%	-3.1%	1.5%
TB @ DET	78.7%	SF	68.6%	71.4%	67.8%	-3.6%	1.5%
SF @ WAS	29.5%	GB	27.7%	26.8%	29.9%	3.1%	1.4%
CAR @ MIA	34.5%	SD	4.9%	5.9%	3.0%	-2.9%	1.4%
IND @ ARZ	58.8%	DET	53.3%	54.9%	52.2%	-2.7%	1.3%
PIT @ CLE	57.1%	MIA	28.3%	26.8%	29.4%	2.7%	1.3%
CAR @ MIA	34.5%	TEN	9.0%	9.9%	7.2%	-2.7%	1.3%
SF @ WAS	29.5%	DET	53.3%	52.5%	55.3%	2.8%	1.3%
CAR @ MIA	34.5%	PHI	54.4%	53.6%	56.1%	2.5%	1.2%
CHI @ STL	53.6%	CAR	88.8%	87.5%	89.8%	2.4%	1.2%
NYJ @ BAL	62.7%	MIA	28.3%	26.9%	29.1%	2.3%	1.1%
NYJ @ BAL	62.7%	DET	53.3%	51.9%	54.1%	2.2%	1.1%
CAR @ MIA	34.5%	PIT	11.6%	12.3%	10.1%	-2.2%	1.0%
NO @ ATL	22.9%	PHI	54.4%	53.9%	56.3%	2.4%	1.0%
MIN @ GB	65.8%	CAR	88.8%	90.1%	88.0%	-2.1%	1.0%
IND @ ARZ	58.8%	GB	27.7%	26.6%	28.5%	1.9%	1.0%
DAL @ NYG	58.6%	SF	68.6%	67.5%	69.4%	1.9%	0.9%
TEN @ RAI	46.1%	PIT	11.6%	10.7%	12.5%	1.8%	0.9%
DEN @ NE	41.2%	NE	98.6%	97.8%	99.6%	1.8%	0.9%
TEN @ RAI	46.1%	NYJ	24.6%	23.8%	25.6%	1.8%	0.9%
DEN @ NE	41.2%	ARZ	23.6%	22.9%	24.7%	1.8%	0.9%
CAR @ MIA	34.5%	BUF	2.5%	3.0%	1.4%	-1.6%	0.8%
DAL @ NYG	58.6%	CAR	88.8%	87.9%	89.4%	1.5%	0.8%
SD @ KC	66.0%	PIT	11.6%	10.5%	12.1%	1.6%	0.7%
JAC @ TEX	80.7%	CAR	88.8%	87.4%	89.1%	1.6%	0.6%
NYJ @ BAL	62.7%	BUF	2.5%	1.7%	2.9%	1.3%	0.6%
SF @ WAS	29.5%	NYG	6.1%	5.7%	7.0%	1.4%	0.6%
TEN @ RAI	46.1%	SD	4.9%	4.4%	5.5%	1.1%	0.6%
PIT @ CLE	57.1%	CIN	94.3%	93.7%	94.8%	1.1%	0.5%
CAR @ MIA	34.5%	CIN	94.3%	94.7%	93.6%	-1.1%	0.5%
CHI @ STL	53.6%	CIN	94.3%	93.8%	94.8%	1.0%	0.5%
CAR @ MIA	34.5%	NE	98.6%	98.9%	97.9%	-1.0%	0.5%
PIT @ CLE	57.1%	SD	4.9%	4.3%	5.3%	1.0%	0.5%
NYJ @ BAL	62.7%	NE	98.6%	98.0%	98.9%	0.9%	0.5%
IND @ ARZ	58.8%	IND	99.5%	99.9%	99.1%	-0.8%	0.4%
SF @ WAS	29.5%	WAS	0.3%	0.1%	0.9%	0.9%	0.4%
CHI @ STL	53.6%	RAI	2.3%	2.7%	2.0%	-0.8%	0.4%
SD @ KC	66.0%	BUF	2.5%	2.0%	2.7%	0.7%	0.3%
IND @ ARZ	58.8%	RAI	2.3%	1.9%	2.6%	0.7%	0.3%
TEN @ RAI	46.1%	IND	99.5%	99.2%	99.8%	0.6%	0.3%
CHI @ STL	53.6%	NO	98.5%	98.2%	98.8%	0.6%	0.3%
IND @ ARZ	58.8%	NO	98.5%	98.8%	98.3%	-0.6%	0.3%
MIN @ GB	65.8%	IND	99.5%	99.2%	99.6%	0.4%	0.2%
CHI @ STL	53.6%	STL	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
TB @ DET	78.7%	STL	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%	-0.3%	0.1%
NO @ ATL	22.9%	STL	0.2%	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%
JAC @ TEX	80.7%	STL	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%	-0.3%	0.1%