Saturday, December 19, 2015

Turnover Index Week 15

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 15. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Our sole pick from week 14 was successful. However, the edge was so small that the Kelly Criterion dictated that we bet just 0.1% of our bankroll, so the impact on overall results was negligible.

Here are the season to date results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 1 $1,000 $40 (4.1%) $37 $1,037
7 3 1 $1,037 $79 (7.7%) ($29) $1,008
9 2 1 $1,008 $66 (6.6%) ($51) $956
10 3 1 $956 $43 (4.6%) $3 $959
11 1 1 $959 $11 (1.2%) $10 $970
12 3 2 $970 $45 (4.7%) ($34) $935
13 1 1 $935 $13 (1.4%) $12 $948
14 1 1 $948 $0 (0.1%) $0 $948


We are now 9-6 against the spread, but with a negative ROI due to bet size. We have two bets this week, including one on tonight's Jets-Cowboys matchup.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Chiefs @ Ravens 24 11 -13 -1.0 Ravens 52.4% 0.1%
Jets @ Cowboys 24 8 -16 -1.2 Cowboys 53.0% 1.2%

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