Saturday, December 12, 2015

Turnover Index Week 14

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 14. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Our sole week 13 pick was successful, with the Saints covering in a wild game against the Panthers.

Here are the season to date results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 1 $1,000 $40 (4.1%) $37 $1,037
7 3 1 $1,037 $79 (7.7%) ($29) $1,008
9 2 1 $1,008 $66 (6.6%) ($51) $956
10 3 1 $956 $43 (4.6%) $3 $959
11 1 1 $959 $11 (1.2%) $10 $970
12 3 2 $970 $45 (4.7%) ($34) $935
13 1 1 $935 $13 (1.4%) $12 $948


We are now 8-6 against the spread, but our bankroll is still underwater. And this week is not going to help. We only have one bet against the spread this week (Chargers to cover against the Chiefs), and the edge is so slight that the Kelly Criterion dictates we only bet 0.1% of our bankroll.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Chargers @ Chiefs 11 23 12 1.0 Chargers 52.4% 0.1%

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