Saturday, December 5, 2015

Turnover Index Week 13

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 13. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

The good news is that our week 12 picks went 2-1 against the spread. The bad news is we lost the wrong bet. The betting strategy dictated we bet a combined 0.7% of our bankroll on the two winning bets. But we had 4.1% bet on the Cowboys to cover against the Panthers on Thanksgiving.

In what was practically a single game refutation of the Turnover Index, the Panthers, who led the league in defensive turnovers, refused to regress to the mean. Instead, they continued their greedy ways, picking off Tony Romo three times, two of which were returned for touchdowns.

Here are the season to date results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 1 $1,000 $40 (4.1%) $37 $1,037
7 3 1 $1,037 $79 (7.7%) ($29) $1,008
9 2 1 $1,008 $66 (6.6%) ($51) $956
10 3 1 $956 $43 (4.6%) $3 $959
11 1 1 $959 $11 (1.2%) $10 $970
12 3 2 $970 $45 (4.7%) ($34) $935

We are now 7-6 against the spread,  with a negative ROI of -6.5%. With only a few weeks remaining in the season (the index takes week 17 off), it is unlikely we will make it into the black by season's end.

There is just one bet this week. We'll try our luck once again betting against the Panthers when they visit New Orleans.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Panthers @ Saints 28 14 -14 -1.3 Saints 53.1% 1.4%

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