Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Turnover Index Week 12

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 12. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

The sole week 11 pick was successful, with the Ravens just barely covering a 2.5 point spread (note: my point spread data comes from sportsdatabase.com).

Here are the season to date results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 1 $1,000 $40 (4.1%) $37 $1,037
7 3 1 $1,037 $79 (7.7%) ($29) $1,008
9 2 1 $1,008 $66 (6.6%) ($51) $956
10 3 1 $956 $43 (4.6%) $3 $959
11 1 1 $959 $11 (1.2%) $10 $970

We are now 5-5 against the spread,  with a negative ROI of -3.0%.

There are three bets this week, two of them on Thanksgiving games.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Cardinals @ Fortyniners 19 8 -11 -1.1 Fortyniners 52.6% 0.6%
Eagles @ Lions 21 11 -10 -1.0 Lions 52.4% 0.1%
Panthers @ Cowboys 25 7 -18 -1.8 Cowboys 54.3% 4.1%

The undefeated Panthers lead the league in defensive turnovers with 25, while the 2-7 Cowboys have the fewest so far, with 7. This makes for an ideal betting opportunity according to our strategy.

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