Turnover Index Week 11

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 11. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

The week 10 picks went 1-2 against the spread, but we eked out a net positive return. One of the losing bets, Seahawks over Cardinals, had just the slightest edge, and thus the Kelly criterion only dictated a small fraction of our bankroll to be bet.

Here are the season to date results:

week	bets	won	starting bankroll	amount bet	profits	ending bankroll
6	1	1	$1,000	$40 (4.1%)	$37	$1,037
7	3	1	$1,037	$79 (7.7%)	($29)	$1,008
9	2	1	$1,008	$66 (6.6%)	($51)	$956
10	3	1	$956	$43 (4.6%)	$3	$959

We are 4-5 against the spread,  with a negative ROI of -4.1%.

There is only one bet this week: Ravens to cover against the Rams.

	turnovers
game	away	home	diff	per game	pick	prob	bet
Rams @ Ravens	16	5	-11	-1.2	Ravens	52.9%	1.2%