NFL Playoff Implications Week 10

Here are the playoff implications for the NFL's week 10 games. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 10 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 10 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
MIN @ OAK	33.5%
ARZ @ SEA	29.0%
CLE @ PIT	21.2%
MIA @ PHI	21.2%
KC @ DEN	18.7%
CHI @ STL	17.8%
NE @ NYG	16.0%
NO @ WAS	16.0%
HOU @ CIN	8.6%
JAC @ BAL	4.4%
DET @ GB	4.3%
CAR @ TEN	3.5%
DAL @ TB	1.8%

Beyond Week 10

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 11-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
17	PHI @ NYG	50.3%
14	BUF @ PHI	40.7%
13	NYJ @ NYG	40.4%
12	PIT @ SEA	39.1%
17	NYJ @ BUF	37.9%
16	NYG @ MIN	36.9%
11	NYJ @ HOU	36.1%
15	HOU @ IND	36.1%
12	MIN @ ATL	35.2%
13	SEA @ MIN	34.9%

Week 10 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 10. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

JAC@BAL HOU@CIN KC@DEN DET@GB NE@NYG BUF@NYJ MIN@OAK MIA@PHI CLE@PIT ARZ@SEA CHI@STL DAL@TB CAR@TEN NO@WAS  OR Select Team: dd ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ OAK PHI PIT SD SEA SF STL TB TEN WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
ARZ @ SEA	60.4%	SEA	50.1%	31.4%	62.3%	30.9%	15.1%
CLE @ PIT	65.7%	PIT	29.8%	14.9%	37.6%	22.7%	10.8%
KC @ DEN	68.7%	KC	26.0%	40.3%	19.5%	-20.7%	9.6%
CHI @ STL	73.4%	STL	30.2%	14.7%	35.8%	21.2%	9.4%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	MIN	52.2%	62.8%	45.3%	-17.6%	8.6%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	OAK	27.5%	17.1%	34.4%	17.3%	8.5%
MIA @ PHI	71.9%	PHI	59.0%	45.4%	64.3%	18.8%	8.5%
NE @ NYG	26.7%	NYG	39.6%	34.5%	53.4%	18.9%	8.4%
ARZ @ SEA	60.4%	ARZ	85.0%	94.3%	78.9%	-15.5%	7.6%
NO @ WAS	46.0%	NO	11.2%	17.0%	4.4%	-12.6%	6.3%
MIA @ PHI	71.9%	NYG	39.6%	48.2%	36.2%	-12.0%	5.4%
NE @ NYG	26.7%	PHI	59.0%	62.1%	50.3%	-11.8%	5.2%
HOU @ CIN	82.1%	HOU	15.5%	25.7%	13.3%	-12.5%	4.8%
NO @ WAS	46.0%	WAS	6.7%	3.6%	10.5%	6.9%	3.4%
HOU @ CIN	82.1%	IND	79.4%	72.5%	80.9%	8.4%	3.2%
CLE @ PIT	65.7%	NYJ	49.7%	53.8%	47.6%	-6.2%	2.9%
MIA @ PHI	71.9%	MIA	4.1%	8.7%	2.3%	-6.4%	2.9%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	NYJ	49.7%	53.0%	47.6%	-5.4%	2.7%
CLE @ PIT	65.7%	BUF	59.4%	63.0%	57.5%	-5.6%	2.6%
DET @ GB	83.7%	GB	96.5%	90.5%	97.6%	7.1%	2.6%
KC @ DEN	68.7%	NYJ	49.7%	46.0%	51.4%	5.4%	2.5%
KC @ DEN	68.7%	PIT	29.8%	26.2%	31.5%	5.3%	2.4%
CLE @ PIT	65.7%	OAK	27.5%	30.8%	25.8%	-4.9%	2.3%
CHI @ STL	73.4%	SEA	50.1%	53.7%	48.8%	-4.9%	2.2%
JAC @ BAL	68.6%	JAC	3.9%	6.8%	2.6%	-4.3%	2.0%
CHI @ STL	73.4%	ATL	66.6%	69.9%	65.5%	-4.4%	1.9%
ARZ @ SEA	60.4%	MIN	52.2%	54.6%	50.7%	-3.9%	1.9%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	ATL	66.6%	64.4%	68.1%	3.7%	1.8%
NO @ WAS	46.0%	ATL	66.6%	65.0%	68.6%	3.6%	1.8%
CAR @ TEN	31.4%	TEN	3.1%	1.9%	5.7%	3.8%	1.8%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	STL	30.2%	28.1%	31.6%	3.5%	1.7%
CHI @ STL	73.4%	ARZ	85.0%	87.8%	84.0%	-3.8%	1.7%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	KC	26.0%	28.1%	24.6%	-3.5%	1.7%
KC @ DEN	68.7%	BUF	59.4%	57.0%	60.4%	3.4%	1.6%
ARZ @ SEA	60.4%	ATL	66.6%	68.6%	65.4%	-3.2%	1.6%
CLE @ PIT	65.7%	KC	26.0%	28.2%	24.9%	-3.3%	1.6%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	PIT	29.8%	31.6%	28.6%	-3.0%	1.5%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	BUF	59.4%	61.2%	58.2%	-3.0%	1.5%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	SEA	50.1%	48.3%	51.2%	2.9%	1.4%
ARZ @ SEA	60.4%	NO	11.2%	12.8%	10.1%	-2.7%	1.3%
NO @ WAS	46.0%	PHI	59.0%	60.2%	57.6%	-2.6%	1.3%
MIA @ PHI	71.9%	WAS	6.7%	8.8%	5.9%	-2.8%	1.3%
KC @ DEN	68.7%	OAK	27.5%	25.6%	28.4%	2.7%	1.3%
CAR @ TEN	31.4%	IND	79.4%	80.2%	77.6%	-2.6%	1.2%
NO @ WAS	46.0%	MIN	52.2%	51.2%	53.5%	2.4%	1.2%
JAC @ BAL	68.6%	IND	79.4%	77.9%	80.1%	2.2%	1.0%
DAL @ TB	55.3%	TB	1.6%	0.5%	2.5%	2.1%	1.0%
CHI @ STL	73.4%	MIN	52.2%	53.9%	51.6%	-2.3%	1.0%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	NO	11.2%	10.0%	12.0%	2.0%	1.0%
KC @ DEN	68.7%	DEN	99.1%	97.7%	99.8%	2.0%	0.9%
JAC @ BAL	68.6%	BAL	1.7%	0.3%	2.3%	2.0%	0.9%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	ARZ	85.0%	83.8%	85.7%	1.9%	0.9%
NE @ NYG	26.7%	WAS	6.7%	7.3%	5.2%	-2.1%	0.9%
CHI @ STL	73.4%	CHI	0.7%	2.1%	0.1%	-2.0%	0.9%
DET @ GB	83.7%	MIN	52.2%	54.2%	51.9%	-2.4%	0.9%
NO @ WAS	46.0%	SEA	50.1%	49.3%	51.0%	1.7%	0.9%
NO @ WAS	46.0%	NYG	39.6%	40.3%	38.7%	-1.6%	0.8%
DAL @ TB	55.3%	DAL	1.1%	2.0%	0.4%	-1.6%	0.8%
ARZ @ SEA	60.4%	STL	30.2%	31.1%	29.6%	-1.4%	0.7%
MIA @ PHI	71.9%	BUF	59.4%	58.3%	59.8%	1.5%	0.7%
MIA @ PHI	71.9%	KC	26.0%	24.9%	26.5%	1.5%	0.7%
MIA @ PHI	71.9%	NYJ	49.7%	48.7%	50.1%	1.5%	0.7%
MIA @ PHI	71.9%	MIN	52.2%	53.3%	51.8%	-1.4%	0.6%
NE @ NYG	26.7%	MIN	52.2%	52.6%	51.2%	-1.4%	0.6%
NE @ NYG	26.7%	SEA	50.1%	50.4%	49.1%	-1.4%	0.6%
DET @ GB	83.7%	ATL	66.6%	68.0%	66.4%	-1.6%	0.6%
CHI @ STL	73.4%	NO	11.2%	12.0%	10.9%	-1.2%	0.5%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	MIA	4.1%	4.7%	3.7%	-1.0%	0.5%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	GB	96.5%	95.9%	96.8%	1.0%	0.5%
CAR @ TEN	31.4%	CAR	99.4%	99.7%	98.7%	-1.0%	0.5%
JAC @ BAL	68.6%	HOU	15.5%	14.8%	15.8%	1.0%	0.4%
ARZ @ SEA	60.4%	GB	96.5%	97.0%	96.1%	-0.9%	0.4%
CLE @ PIT	65.7%	MIA	4.1%	4.7%	3.8%	-0.9%	0.4%
MIA @ PHI	71.9%	DAL	1.1%	1.8%	0.8%	-1.0%	0.4%
KC @ DEN	68.7%	MIA	4.1%	3.5%	4.4%	0.9%	0.4%
ARZ @ SEA	60.4%	TB	1.6%	2.0%	1.3%	-0.7%	0.4%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	WAS	6.7%	6.4%	7.0%	0.6%	0.3%
HOU @ CIN	82.1%	JAC	3.9%	3.3%	4.0%	0.7%	0.3%
NE @ NYG	26.7%	DAL	1.1%	1.3%	0.7%	-0.6%	0.3%
HOU @ CIN	82.1%	TEN	3.1%	2.5%	3.2%	0.7%	0.3%
CHI @ STL	73.4%	GB	96.5%	96.9%	96.3%	-0.6%	0.3%
CLE @ PIT	65.7%	CLE	0.2%	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5%	0.2%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	JAC	3.9%	4.2%	3.7%	-0.5%	0.2%
NO @ WAS	46.0%	GB	96.5%	96.2%	96.7%	0.5%	0.2%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	BAL	1.7%	2.0%	1.5%	-0.5%	0.2%
DET @ GB	83.7%	DAL	1.1%	1.6%	1.0%	-0.6%	0.2%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	TB	1.6%	1.3%	1.8%	0.4%	0.2%
CLE @ PIT	65.7%	DEN	99.1%	99.4%	99.0%	-0.4%	0.2%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	DEN	99.1%	99.4%	99.0%	-0.4%	0.2%
NO @ WAS	46.0%	CHI	0.7%	0.6%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%
MIN @ OAK	60.2%	CLE	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
HOU @ CIN	82.1%	CIN	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NE @ NYG	26.7%	NE	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	-0.1%	0.0%