Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Turnover Index Week 11

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 11. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

The week 10 picks went 1-2 against the spread, but we eked out a net positive return. One of the losing bets, Seahawks over Cardinals, had just the slightest edge, and thus the Kelly criterion only dictated a small fraction of our bankroll to be bet.

Here are the season to date results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 1 $1,000 $40 (4.1%) $37 $1,037
7 3 1 $1,037 $79 (7.7%) ($29) $1,008
9 2 1 $1,008 $66 (6.6%) ($51) $956
10 3 1 $956 $43 (4.6%) $3 $959

We are 4-5 against the spread,  with a negative ROI of -4.1%.

There is only one bet this week: Ravens to cover against the Rams.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Rams @ Ravens 16 5 -11 -1.2 Ravens 52.9% 1.2%

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