Sunday, November 8, 2015

NFL Playoff Implications Week 9

Unfortunately, weekly playoff implications will not be featured on FiveThirtyEight this season. But, I was able to dust off the code from the "classic" version I originally created for this site. It lacks the bells and whistles of the FiveThirtyEight version, but it gets the job done. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 9 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 9 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
STL @ MIN 32.4%
JAC @ NYJ 28.4%
PHI @ DAL 27.0%
OAK @ PIT 26.7%
MIA @ BUF 23.7%
NYG @ TB 16.9%
ATL @ SF 16.4%
DEN @ IND 16.2%
TEN @ NO 12.7%
WAS @ NE 5.6%
GB @ CAR 4.5%
CHI @ SD 1.4%

Beyond Week 9

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 10-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
17 PHI @ NYG 44.2%
15 HOU @ IND 44.0%
11 NYJ @ HOU 38.5%
12 PIT @ SEA 36.1%
13 NYJ @ NYG 35.7%
13 IND @ PIT 35.2%
10 MIN @ OAK 34.9%
13 SEA @ MIN 34.7%
16 NYG @ MIN 34.3%
14 BUF @ PHI 33.5%

Week 9 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 9. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
STL @ MIN 57.1% STL 34.1% 51.9% 20.8% -31.1% 15.4%
STL @ MIN 57.1% MIN 39.2% 22.8% 51.5% 28.6% 14.2%
PHI @ DAL 41.2% PHI 56.7% 68.3% 40.1% -28.2% 13.9%
OAK @ PIT 65.5% OAK 32.1% 50.5% 22.4% -28.1% 13.4%
OAK @ PIT 65.5% PIT 28.3% 10.6% 37.7% 27.1% 12.9%
MIA @ BUF 60.5% BUF 33.3% 17.9% 43.4% 25.5% 12.5%
JAC @ NYJ 74.7% NYJ 51.1% 33.8% 57.0% 23.3% 10.1%
MIA @ BUF 60.5% MIA 16.9% 28.5% 9.2% -19.4% 9.5%
ATL @ SF 27.1% ATL 79.7% 84.9% 65.7% -19.2% 8.5%
DEN @ IND 32.9% IND 57.4% 51.5% 69.4% 17.9% 8.4%
NYG @ TB 41.4% NYG 30.3% 37.3% 20.3% -17.0% 8.4%
PHI @ DAL 41.2% DAL 7.8% 2.0% 16.0% 14.1% 6.9%
TEN @ NO 75.7% NO 21.3% 11.0% 24.5% 13.5% 5.8%
JAC @ NYJ 74.7% JAC 12.6% 21.8% 9.6% -12.2% 5.3%
NYG @ TB 41.4% PHI 56.7% 52.6% 62.4% 9.8% 4.8%
PHI @ DAL 41.2% NYG 30.3% 26.4% 35.9% 9.5% 4.7%
DEN @ IND 32.9% HOU 29.9% 33.1% 23.3% -9.8% 4.6%
WAS @ NE 88.0% WAS 7.7% 16.2% 6.6% -9.6% 3.1%
JAC @ NYJ 74.7% IND 57.4% 52.5% 59.1% 6.5% 2.8%
DEN @ IND 32.9% JAC 12.6% 14.4% 9.1% -5.3% 2.5%
GB @ CAR 39.4% CAR 95.7% 94.0% 98.4% 4.5% 2.2%
ATL @ SF 27.1% NO 21.3% 20.0% 24.6% 4.6% 2.0%
JAC @ NYJ 74.7% KC 32.3% 35.7% 31.1% -4.6% 2.0%
JAC @ NYJ 74.7% OAK 32.1% 35.1% 31.1% -4.0% 1.7%
ATL @ SF 27.1% MIN 39.2% 38.1% 42.0% 3.9% 1.7%
NYG @ TB 41.4% DAL 7.8% 6.4% 9.7% 3.3% 1.6%
JAC @ NYJ 74.7% PIT 28.3% 31.2% 27.4% -3.8% 1.6%
TEN @ NO 75.7% ATL 79.7% 82.5% 78.8% -3.7% 1.6%
WAS @ NE 88.0% PHI 56.7% 52.4% 57.3% 4.9% 1.6%
PHI @ DAL 41.2% WAS 7.7% 6.4% 9.6% 3.2% 1.6%
GB @ CAR 39.4% GB 98.1% 99.3% 96.1% -3.2% 1.6%
JAC @ NYJ 74.7% BUF 33.3% 36.0% 32.4% -3.6% 1.5%
JAC @ NYJ 74.7% MIA 16.9% 19.4% 16.0% -3.4% 1.5%
ATL @ SF 27.1% SEA 50.1% 49.2% 52.6% 3.3% 1.5%
MIA @ BUF 60.5% NYJ 51.1% 52.9% 50.0% -2.9% 1.4%
TEN @ NO 75.7% TEN 2.0% 4.3% 1.2% -3.1% 1.3%
ATL @ SF 27.1% ARZ 77.5% 76.7% 79.7% 3.0% 1.3%
JAC @ NYJ 74.7% HOU 29.9% 27.7% 30.6% 2.9% 1.3%
TEN @ NO 75.7% SEA 50.1% 52.4% 49.4% -2.9% 1.2%
STL @ MIN 57.1% SEA 50.1% 48.7% 51.2% 2.4% 1.2%
ATL @ SF 27.1% STL 34.1% 33.4% 36.0% 2.6% 1.2%
NYG @ TB 41.4% TB 1.6% 0.7% 2.9% 2.3% 1.1%
TEN @ NO 75.7% MIN 39.2% 40.8% 38.7% -2.1% 0.9%
NYG @ TB 41.4% WAS 7.7% 7.0% 8.7% 1.8% 0.9%
STL @ MIN 57.1% ARZ 77.5% 76.6% 78.3% 1.7% 0.9%
WAS @ NE 88.0% NYG 30.3% 28.0% 30.6% 2.6% 0.8%
TEN @ NO 75.7% ARZ 77.5% 78.8% 77.1% -1.7% 0.7%
GB @ CAR 39.4% SEA 50.1% 50.7% 49.3% -1.5% 0.7%
CHI @ SD 64.3% SD 1.3% 0.4% 1.8% 1.4% 0.7%
CHI @ SD 64.3% NYJ 51.1% 51.9% 50.7% -1.2% 0.6%
TEN @ NO 75.7% IND 57.4% 56.4% 57.7% 1.3% 0.6%
STL @ MIN 57.1% ATL 79.7% 80.4% 79.2% -1.1% 0.6%
TEN @ NO 75.7% CAR 95.7% 96.7% 95.4% -1.3% 0.6%
DEN @ IND 32.9% TEN 2.0% 2.3% 1.2% -1.1% 0.5%
JAC @ NYJ 74.7% BAL 2.8% 3.4% 2.5% -0.9% 0.4%
MIA @ BUF 60.5% BAL 2.8% 3.2% 2.5% -0.7% 0.3%
OAK @ PIT 65.5% CAR 95.7% 96.1% 95.5% -0.6% 0.3%
STL @ MIN 57.1% GB 98.1% 98.4% 97.8% -0.5% 0.3%
OAK @ PIT 65.5% BAL 2.8% 2.5% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2%
ATL @ SF 27.1% GB 98.1% 97.9% 98.4% 0.4% 0.2%
CHI @ SD 64.3% CHI 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% -0.3% 0.2%
DEN @ IND 32.9% DEN 99.8% 99.9% 99.6% -0.3% 0.2%
NYG @ TB 41.4% CLE 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
WAS @ NE 88.0% NE 100.0% 99.9% 100.0% 0.1% 0.0%

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