Saturday, December 21, 2013

Turnover Index - Week 16

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 16. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 15 results

Our sole week 15 bet against the spread was successful (just barely, the Jets were 10.5 point underdogs and lost to the Panthers by 10). Here is the season-to-date performance:
  • Against the Spread: 12-15-1
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $814 (-19% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
4 2 0 $1,000 $268 (26.8%) ($268) $731
6 1 1 $731 $32 (4.5%) $29 $761
7 3 3 $761 $130 (17.1%) $118 $879
8 3 1 $879 $70 (8.1%) ($12) $867
9 7 2 $867 $166 (19.2%) ($66) $800
10 4 1.5 $800 $95 (11.9%) ($45) $755
11 2 0 $755 $14 (1.9%) ($14) $741
12 1 1 $741 $37 (5.1%) $34 $775
13 4 2 $775 $46 (5.9%) $21 $797
15 1 1 $797 $18 (2.3%) $16 $814

Week 16 Picks

There are two bets against the spread this week. We are wagering 1.4% of our bankroll in total. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Broncos @ Texans 23 10 -13 -0.9 Texans 52.6% 0.5%
Colts @ Chiefs 21 35 14 1.0 Colts 52.8% 0.9%

A reminder that this betting strategy ignores week 17 games, so this is the last week of picks for the 2013 season. Obviously, we're not going to claw our way back to profitability this week just betting 1.4% of the bankroll. I'll do a post-mortem on this season's results once week 16 is complete.

The "Old" Index

Under last season's simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 turnover differential), season to date results for 2013 are 10-11-1 against the spread. There is one additional bet this week according to the old criteria, in addition to the two bets above. That bet is: Saints over Panthers.

No comments:

Post a Comment