Saturday, December 14, 2013

Turnover Index - Week 15

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 15. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 14 results

There were no week 14 results as no bets met our criteria. Here is the season-to-date performance:
  • Against the Spread: 11-15-1
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $775 (-20% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
4 2 0 $1,000 $268 (26.8%) ($268) $731
6 1 1 $731 $32 (4.5%) $29 $761
7 3 3 $761 $130 (17.1%) $118 $879
8 3 1 $879 $70 (8.1%) ($12) $867
9 7 2 $867 $166 (19.2%) ($66) $800
10 4 1.5 $800 $95 (11.9%) ($45) $755
11 2 0 $755 $14 (1.9%) ($14) $741
12 1 1 $741 $37 (5.1%) $34 $775
13 4 2 $775 $46 (5.9%) $21 $797

Week 15 Pick

There is one bet against the spread this week. We are wagering 2.3% of our bankroll in total. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Jets @ Panthers 10 26 16 1.2 Jets 53.5% 2.3%

The "Old" Index

Under last season's simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 turnover differential), season to date results for 2013 are 9-9-1 against the spread. There are two additional bets this week according to the old criteria, in addition to the bet on the Jets above. Those bets are: Raiders over Chiefs and Texans over Colts

4 comments:

  1. I'm not sure if you saw my previous reply about takeaways in college football.

    http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/takeaways-per-game

    I don't think they have it on a game to game basis, which is what would make it hard to do.

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  3. Are you posting playoff implications this week?

    ReplyDelete