Playoff Implications - Week 15

Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

Ranking Week 15 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 15 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
BAL @ DET	69.1%
NE @ MIA	40.9%
GB @ DAL	40.1%
PHI @ MIN	29.4%
SF @ TB	23.1%
ARZ @ TEN	22.8%
NYJ @ CAR	21.0%
CHI @ CLE	20.0%
CIN @ PIT	3.5%
KC @ RAI	0.6%
NO @ STL	0.6%
SEA @ NYG	0.1%
BUF @ JAC	0.0%
TEX @ IND	0.0%
WAS @ ATL	0.0%

Beyond Week 15

I can also use my simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 16-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
17	PHI @ DAL	66.9%
16	CHI @ PHI	49.9%
17	SF @ ARZ	41.2%
16	MIA @ BUF	38.7%
17	BAL @ CIN	36.9%
16	NE @ BAL	36.8%
17	NYJ @ MIA	35.8%
16	NYG @ DET	32.4%
17	DET @ MIN	30.9%
16	DAL @ WAS	28.1%

Week 15 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 15. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

WAS@ATL NYJ@CAR CHI@CLE GB@DAL SD@DEN BAL@DET TEX@IND BUF@JAC NE@MIA PHI@MIN SEA@NYG CIN@PIT KC@RAI NO@STL SF@TB ARZ@TEN  OR Select Team: ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ PHI PIT RAI SD SEA SF STL TB TEN TEX WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
NE @ MIA	50.7%	MIA	56.5%	36.1%	76.2%	40.1%	20.0%
BAL @ DET	69.0%	BAL	35.2%	62.1%	23.1%	-39.0%	18.0%
BAL @ DET	69.0%	DET	75.8%	51.0%	86.9%	35.9%	16.6%
PHI @ MIN	32.3%	PHI	63.9%	74.3%	42.2%	-32.2%	15.0%
GB @ DAL	71.8%	DAL	41.6%	21.4%	49.5%	28.2%	12.7%
BAL @ DET	69.0%	MIA	56.5%	38.3%	64.6%	26.2%	12.1%
PHI @ MIN	32.3%	DAL	41.6%	33.4%	58.7%	25.3%	11.8%
NE @ MIA	50.7%	BAL	35.2%	47.1%	23.5%	-23.6%	11.8%
SF @ TB	32.5%	SF	84.8%	92.8%	68.1%	-24.6%	11.5%
ARZ @ TEN	40.9%	ARZ	18.7%	28.1%	5.3%	-22.8%	11.2%
BAL @ DET	69.0%	CHI	15.1%	31.4%	7.8%	-23.6%	10.9%
GB @ DAL	71.8%	PHI	63.9%	79.3%	57.9%	-21.4%	9.6%
NYJ @ CAR	81.2%	CAR	91.1%	71.6%	95.6%	24.0%	9.4%
CHI @ CLE	46.7%	CHI	15.1%	23.9%	5.2%	-18.7%	9.3%
CHI @ CLE	46.7%	DET	75.8%	68.6%	83.9%	15.3%	7.6%
GB @ DAL	71.8%	GB	9.4%	21.4%	4.7%	-16.8%	7.5%
ARZ @ TEN	40.9%	SF	84.8%	79.1%	93.0%	13.9%	6.8%
SF @ TB	32.5%	ARZ	18.7%	14.1%	28.3%	14.2%	6.6%
GB @ DAL	71.8%	DET	75.8%	65.2%	79.9%	14.7%	6.6%
NE @ MIA	50.7%	SD	8.8%	15.2%	2.5%	-12.7%	6.3%
BAL @ DET	69.0%	GB	9.4%	17.7%	5.6%	-12.1%	5.6%
NYJ @ CAR	81.2%	ARZ	18.7%	29.5%	16.2%	-13.2%	5.2%
BAL @ DET	69.0%	SD	8.8%	3.2%	11.2%	8.0%	3.7%
ARZ @ TEN	40.9%	CAR	91.1%	88.1%	95.4%	7.2%	3.6%
NYJ @ CAR	81.2%	PHI	63.9%	69.8%	62.6%	-7.2%	2.8%
SF @ TB	32.5%	CAR	91.1%	89.3%	94.7%	5.4%	2.5%
SF @ TB	32.5%	PHI	63.9%	62.3%	67.3%	5.0%	2.4%
CIN @ PIT	40.9%	CIN	98.3%	99.8%	96.0%	-3.8%	1.9%
NYJ @ CAR	81.2%	NYJ	1.3%	5.2%	0.5%	-4.7%	1.8%
NYJ @ CAR	81.2%	BAL	35.2%	31.5%	36.0%	4.5%	1.8%
CHI @ CLE	46.7%	GB	9.4%	7.9%	11.1%	3.2%	1.6%
GB @ DAL	71.8%	ARZ	18.7%	21.1%	17.8%	-3.3%	1.5%
CIN @ PIT	40.9%	MIA	56.5%	55.3%	58.1%	2.8%	1.4%
PHI @ MIN	32.3%	CAR	91.1%	90.3%	92.8%	2.6%	1.2%
GB @ DAL	71.8%	CAR	91.1%	93.0%	90.4%	-2.6%	1.2%
PHI @ MIN	32.3%	SF	84.8%	84.0%	86.4%	2.5%	1.1%
BAL @ DET	69.0%	CIN	98.3%	96.6%	99.0%	2.4%	1.1%
CHI @ CLE	46.7%	BAL	35.2%	36.1%	34.1%	-2.1%	1.0%
NE @ MIA	50.7%	ARZ	18.7%	19.6%	17.9%	-1.7%	0.9%
NE @ MIA	50.7%	NYJ	1.3%	2.2%	0.5%	-1.6%	0.8%
GB @ DAL	71.8%	CHI	15.1%	13.9%	15.6%	1.7%	0.8%
NE @ MIA	50.7%	CIN	98.3%	99.0%	97.5%	-1.5%	0.8%
BAL @ DET	69.0%	NYJ	1.3%	0.3%	1.8%	1.5%	0.7%
KC @ RAI	33.8%	SD	8.8%	8.3%	9.6%	1.3%	0.6%
ARZ @ TEN	40.9%	GB	9.4%	8.9%	10.1%	1.2%	0.6%
NO @ STL	30.6%	NO	99.7%	100.0%	98.9%	-1.1%	0.5%
ARZ @ TEN	40.9%	CIN	98.3%	98.7%	97.7%	-0.9%	0.5%
CHI @ CLE	46.7%	CIN	98.3%	98.0%	98.6%	0.5%	0.3%
PHI @ MIN	32.3%	NO	99.7%	99.5%	100.0%	0.5%	0.2%
BAL @ DET	69.0%	NE	99.9%	99.5%	100.0%	0.5%	0.2%
GB @ DAL	71.8%	NO	99.7%	99.9%	99.6%	-0.3%	0.2%
NE @ MIA	50.7%	NE	99.9%	100.0%	99.7%	-0.3%	0.1%
ARZ @ TEN	40.9%	TEN	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
SEA @ NYG	27.6%	SEA	99.9%	100.0%	99.7%	-0.3%	0.1%
CHI @ CLE	46.7%	NE	99.9%	100.0%	99.7%	-0.2%	0.1%
CIN @ PIT	40.9%	PIT	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
NE @ MIA	50.7%	TEN	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	-0.2%	0.1%
NO @ STL	30.6%	NE	99.9%	99.8%	100.0%	0.2%	0.1%
NE @ MIA	50.7%	PIT	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	-0.2%	0.1%
CIN @ PIT	40.9%	TEN	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
BAL @ DET	69.0%	TEN	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%