Playoff Implications - Week 14

HereHere is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

Ranking Week 14 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 14 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
DET @ PHI	49.6%
MIA @ PIT	39.7%
DAL @ CHI	39.2%
MIN @ BAL	33.2%
SEA @ SF	20.0%
TEN @ DEN	16.5%
STL @ ARZ	15.2%
ATL @ GB	13.4%
CAR @ NO	6.5%
RAI @ NYJ	3.8%
NYG @ SD	3.8%
IND @ CIN	2.9%
CLE @ NE	1.8%
BUF @ TB	0.3%
KC @ WAS	0.2%

Beyond Week 14

I can also use my simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 15-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
15	BAL @ DET	59.5%
17	PHI @ DAL	56.9%
16	CHI @ PHI	42.6%
15	GB @ DAL	41.0%
16	NE @ BAL	38.5%
17	SF @ ARZ	38.4%
17	BAL @ CIN	32.6%
15	NE @ MIA	30.8%
16	PIT @ GB	30.7%
15	ARZ @ TEN	28.1%

Week 14 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 14. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

STL@ARZ MIN@BAL DAL@CHI IND@CIN TEN@DEN ATL@GB TEX@JAC CLE@NE CAR@NO RAI@NYJ DET@PHI MIA@PIT NYG@SD SEA@SF BUF@TB KC@WAS  OR Select Team: ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ PHI PIT RAI SD SEA SF STL TB TEN TEX WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
MIA @ PIT	60.4%	MIA	31.9%	56.7%	15.6%	-41.0%	20.1%
MIN @ BAL	72.0%	BAL	45.0%	20.1%	54.7%	34.5%	15.5%
DET @ PHI	58.8%	PHI	55.1%	36.9%	67.8%	30.9%	15.2%
DAL @ CHI	53.5%	DAL	52.9%	66.5%	41.1%	-25.4%	12.7%
DET @ PHI	58.8%	DAL	52.9%	66.2%	43.6%	-22.6%	11.1%
SEA @ SF	59.2%	SF	79.6%	66.6%	88.6%	22.0%	10.8%
DET @ PHI	58.8%	DET	80.0%	92.0%	71.5%	-20.5%	10.1%
MIA @ PIT	60.4%	PIT	11.5%	0.4%	18.8%	18.3%	9.0%
TEN @ DEN	85.2%	TEN	6.5%	26.6%	3.0%	-23.6%	8.4%
DAL @ CHI	53.5%	PHI	55.1%	46.5%	62.5%	16.1%	8.0%
STL @ ARZ	72.4%	ARZ	17.6%	5.2%	22.3%	17.1%	7.6%
MIN @ BAL	72.0%	MIA	31.9%	43.4%	27.4%	-15.9%	7.1%
ATL @ GB	59.4%	GB	11.6%	3.1%	17.4%	14.2%	7.0%
ATL @ GB	59.4%	DET	80.0%	87.7%	74.7%	-13.0%	6.4%
DAL @ CHI	53.5%	CHI	9.2%	3.0%	14.7%	11.6%	5.8%
MIA @ PIT	60.4%	BAL	45.0%	37.9%	49.7%	11.7%	5.7%
SEA @ SF	59.2%	ARZ	17.6%	23.8%	13.3%	-10.6%	5.2%
DET @ PHI	58.8%	GB	11.6%	5.8%	15.7%	9.9%	4.9%
DET @ PHI	58.8%	CHI	9.2%	3.6%	13.2%	9.7%	4.8%
STL @ ARZ	72.4%	SF	79.6%	87.3%	76.7%	-10.5%	4.7%
DAL @ CHI	53.5%	DET	80.0%	84.8%	75.8%	-9.0%	4.5%
MIN @ BAL	72.0%	PIT	11.5%	17.6%	9.1%	-8.4%	3.8%
TEN @ DEN	85.2%	BAL	45.0%	36.1%	46.6%	10.4%	3.7%
CAR @ NO	60.4%	CAR	95.4%	99.3%	92.8%	-6.5%	3.2%
MIA @ PIT	60.4%	TEN	6.5%	2.8%	8.9%	6.2%	3.0%
DAL @ CHI	53.5%	SF	79.6%	77.0%	82.0%	5.0%	2.5%
NYG @ SD	60.2%	SD	3.5%	0.6%	5.4%	4.8%	2.3%
RAI @ NYJ	59.1%	NYJ	2.9%	0.3%	4.8%	4.5%	2.2%
SEA @ SF	59.2%	PHI	55.1%	57.5%	53.4%	-4.0%	2.0%
IND @ CIN	69.4%	CIN	98.3%	95.5%	99.6%	4.1%	1.9%
DAL @ CHI	53.5%	MIA	31.9%	29.9%	33.6%	3.7%	1.8%
TEN @ DEN	85.2%	MIA	31.9%	27.5%	32.7%	5.1%	1.8%
CAR @ NO	60.4%	NO	98.3%	96.1%	99.7%	3.6%	1.8%
TEN @ DEN	85.2%	PIT	11.5%	7.9%	12.1%	4.2%	1.5%
CAR @ NO	60.4%	ARZ	17.6%	15.7%	18.8%	3.0%	1.5%
MIN @ BAL	72.0%	TEN	6.5%	8.8%	5.6%	-3.2%	1.4%
MIN @ BAL	72.0%	SF	79.6%	81.9%	78.8%	-3.1%	1.4%
STL @ ARZ	72.4%	CAR	95.4%	97.6%	94.6%	-3.1%	1.4%
SEA @ SF	59.2%	CAR	95.4%	97.0%	94.3%	-2.7%	1.3%
DET @ PHI	58.8%	SF	79.6%	81.2%	78.5%	-2.7%	1.3%
DET @ PHI	58.8%	ARZ	17.6%	19.1%	16.5%	-2.6%	1.3%
MIN @ BAL	72.0%	NYJ	2.9%	4.8%	2.2%	-2.6%	1.2%
RAI @ NYJ	59.1%	MIA	31.9%	33.3%	30.9%	-2.4%	1.2%
NYG @ SD	60.2%	BAL	45.0%	46.4%	44.1%	-2.4%	1.2%
STL @ ARZ	72.4%	MIA	31.9%	33.7%	31.2%	-2.5%	1.1%
CLE @ NE	84.6%	SF	79.6%	82.1%	79.2%	-2.9%	1.0%
MIN @ BAL	72.0%	ARZ	17.6%	15.9%	18.2%	2.3%	1.0%
DAL @ CHI	53.5%	GB	11.6%	12.7%	10.7%	-2.0%	1.0%
MIA @ PIT	60.4%	SD	3.5%	2.3%	4.2%	2.0%	1.0%
IND @ CIN	69.4%	PIT	11.5%	12.8%	10.9%	-1.9%	0.9%
DAL @ CHI	53.5%	CAR	95.4%	94.5%	96.2%	1.8%	0.9%
MIN @ BAL	72.0%	SD	3.5%	4.9%	2.9%	-1.9%	0.9%
DAL @ CHI	53.5%	PIT	11.5%	12.2%	10.9%	-1.4%	0.7%
TEN @ DEN	85.2%	SD	3.5%	1.8%	3.7%	1.9%	0.7%
MIN @ BAL	72.0%	CIN	98.3%	99.4%	97.9%	-1.5%	0.7%
SEA @ SF	59.2%	NO	98.3%	99.1%	97.8%	-1.3%	0.7%
MIA @ PIT	60.4%	CIN	98.3%	97.5%	98.8%	1.3%	0.6%
DET @ PHI	58.8%	NO	98.3%	98.9%	97.9%	-1.1%	0.5%
DET @ PHI	58.8%	CAR	95.4%	96.0%	95.0%	-0.9%	0.5%
DAL @ CHI	53.5%	NO	98.3%	97.8%	98.7%	0.9%	0.5%
RAI @ NYJ	59.1%	RAI	0.4%	0.9%	0.0%	-0.9%	0.4%
DAL @ CHI	53.5%	NYJ	2.9%	3.4%	2.5%	-0.9%	0.4%
CLE @ NE	84.6%	NYJ	2.9%	3.8%	2.8%	-1.0%	0.4%
TEN @ DEN	85.2%	NYJ	2.9%	2.1%	3.1%	1.0%	0.4%
STL @ ARZ	72.4%	NYJ	2.9%	2.4%	3.2%	0.8%	0.3%
BUF @ TB	59.5%	BUF	0.3%	0.7%	0.0%	-0.7%	0.3%
NYG @ SD	60.2%	NYG	0.2%	0.6%	0.0%	-0.6%	0.3%
CLE @ NE	84.6%	NE	99.9%	99.3%	100.0%	0.7%	0.3%
KC @ WAS	39.9%	KC	99.8%	100.0%	99.5%	-0.5%	0.2%
CLE @ NE	84.6%	CLE	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5%	0.2%
DAL @ CHI	53.5%	NYG	0.2%	0.0%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%
MIA @ PIT	60.4%	BUF	0.3%	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%
DAL @ CHI	53.5%	BUF	0.3%	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%
TEN @ DEN	85.2%	IND	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	0.3%	0.1%
MIN @ BAL	72.0%	CLE	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	-0.3%	0.1%
IND @ CIN	69.4%	BUF	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
DAL @ CHI	53.5%	KC	99.8%	99.9%	99.7%	-0.2%	0.1%
MIN @ BAL	72.0%	KC	99.8%	100.0%	99.8%	-0.2%	0.1%
MIA @ PIT	60.4%	NE	99.9%	99.8%	100.0%	0.2%	0.1%
STL @ ARZ	72.4%	STL	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	0.1%
CAR @ NO	60.4%	STL	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%
MIA @ PIT	60.4%	STL	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%