Sunday, December 15, 2013

Playoff Implications - Week 15

Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

Ranking Week 15 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 15 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
BAL @ DET 69.1%
NE @ MIA 40.9%
GB @ DAL 40.1%
PHI @ MIN 29.4%
SF @ TB 23.1%
ARZ @ TEN 22.8%
NYJ @ CAR 21.0%
CHI @ CLE 20.0%
CIN @ PIT 3.5%
KC @ RAI 0.6%
NO @ STL 0.6%
SEA @ NYG 0.1%
BUF @ JAC 0.0%
TEX @ IND 0.0%
WAS @ ATL 0.0%

Beyond Week 15

I can also use my simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 16-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
17 PHI @ DAL 66.9%
16 CHI @ PHI 49.9%
17 SF @ ARZ 41.2%
16 MIA @ BUF 38.7%
17 BAL @ CIN 36.9%
16 NE @ BAL 36.8%
17 NYJ @ MIA 35.8%
16 NYG @ DET 32.4%
17 DET @ MIN 30.9%
16 DAL @ WAS 28.1%

Week 15 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 15. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
NE @ MIA 50.7% MIA 56.5% 36.1% 76.2% 40.1% 20.0%
BAL @ DET 69.0% BAL 35.2% 62.1% 23.1% -39.0% 18.0%
BAL @ DET 69.0% DET 75.8% 51.0% 86.9% 35.9% 16.6%
PHI @ MIN 32.3% PHI 63.9% 74.3% 42.2% -32.2% 15.0%
GB @ DAL 71.8% DAL 41.6% 21.4% 49.5% 28.2% 12.7%
BAL @ DET 69.0% MIA 56.5% 38.3% 64.6% 26.2% 12.1%
PHI @ MIN 32.3% DAL 41.6% 33.4% 58.7% 25.3% 11.8%
NE @ MIA 50.7% BAL 35.2% 47.1% 23.5% -23.6% 11.8%
SF @ TB 32.5% SF 84.8% 92.8% 68.1% -24.6% 11.5%
ARZ @ TEN 40.9% ARZ 18.7% 28.1% 5.3% -22.8% 11.2%
BAL @ DET 69.0% CHI 15.1% 31.4% 7.8% -23.6% 10.9%
GB @ DAL 71.8% PHI 63.9% 79.3% 57.9% -21.4% 9.6%
NYJ @ CAR 81.2% CAR 91.1% 71.6% 95.6% 24.0% 9.4%
CHI @ CLE 46.7% CHI 15.1% 23.9% 5.2% -18.7% 9.3%
CHI @ CLE 46.7% DET 75.8% 68.6% 83.9% 15.3% 7.6%
GB @ DAL 71.8% GB 9.4% 21.4% 4.7% -16.8% 7.5%
ARZ @ TEN 40.9% SF 84.8% 79.1% 93.0% 13.9% 6.8%
SF @ TB 32.5% ARZ 18.7% 14.1% 28.3% 14.2% 6.6%
GB @ DAL 71.8% DET 75.8% 65.2% 79.9% 14.7% 6.6%
NE @ MIA 50.7% SD 8.8% 15.2% 2.5% -12.7% 6.3%
BAL @ DET 69.0% GB 9.4% 17.7% 5.6% -12.1% 5.6%
NYJ @ CAR 81.2% ARZ 18.7% 29.5% 16.2% -13.2% 5.2%
BAL @ DET 69.0% SD 8.8% 3.2% 11.2% 8.0% 3.7%
ARZ @ TEN 40.9% CAR 91.1% 88.1% 95.4% 7.2% 3.6%
NYJ @ CAR 81.2% PHI 63.9% 69.8% 62.6% -7.2% 2.8%
SF @ TB 32.5% CAR 91.1% 89.3% 94.7% 5.4% 2.5%
SF @ TB 32.5% PHI 63.9% 62.3% 67.3% 5.0% 2.4%
CIN @ PIT 40.9% CIN 98.3% 99.8% 96.0% -3.8% 1.9%
NYJ @ CAR 81.2% NYJ 1.3% 5.2% 0.5% -4.7% 1.8%
NYJ @ CAR 81.2% BAL 35.2% 31.5% 36.0% 4.5% 1.8%
CHI @ CLE 46.7% GB 9.4% 7.9% 11.1% 3.2% 1.6%
GB @ DAL 71.8% ARZ 18.7% 21.1% 17.8% -3.3% 1.5%
CIN @ PIT 40.9% MIA 56.5% 55.3% 58.1% 2.8% 1.4%
PHI @ MIN 32.3% CAR 91.1% 90.3% 92.8% 2.6% 1.2%
GB @ DAL 71.8% CAR 91.1% 93.0% 90.4% -2.6% 1.2%
PHI @ MIN 32.3% SF 84.8% 84.0% 86.4% 2.5% 1.1%
BAL @ DET 69.0% CIN 98.3% 96.6% 99.0% 2.4% 1.1%
CHI @ CLE 46.7% BAL 35.2% 36.1% 34.1% -2.1% 1.0%
NE @ MIA 50.7% ARZ 18.7% 19.6% 17.9% -1.7% 0.9%
NE @ MIA 50.7% NYJ 1.3% 2.2% 0.5% -1.6% 0.8%
GB @ DAL 71.8% CHI 15.1% 13.9% 15.6% 1.7% 0.8%
NE @ MIA 50.7% CIN 98.3% 99.0% 97.5% -1.5% 0.8%
BAL @ DET 69.0% NYJ 1.3% 0.3% 1.8% 1.5% 0.7%
KC @ RAI 33.8% SD 8.8% 8.3% 9.6% 1.3% 0.6%
ARZ @ TEN 40.9% GB 9.4% 8.9% 10.1% 1.2% 0.6%
NO @ STL 30.6% NO 99.7% 100.0% 98.9% -1.1% 0.5%
ARZ @ TEN 40.9% CIN 98.3% 98.7% 97.7% -0.9% 0.5%
CHI @ CLE 46.7% CIN 98.3% 98.0% 98.6% 0.5% 0.3%
PHI @ MIN 32.3% NO 99.7% 99.5% 100.0% 0.5% 0.2%
BAL @ DET 69.0% NE 99.9% 99.5% 100.0% 0.5% 0.2%
GB @ DAL 71.8% NO 99.7% 99.9% 99.6% -0.3% 0.2%
NE @ MIA 50.7% NE 99.9% 100.0% 99.7% -0.3% 0.1%
ARZ @ TEN 40.9% TEN 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
SEA @ NYG 27.6% SEA 99.9% 100.0% 99.7% -0.3% 0.1%
CHI @ CLE 46.7% NE 99.9% 100.0% 99.7% -0.2% 0.1%
CIN @ PIT 40.9% PIT 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
NE @ MIA 50.7% TEN 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.1%
NO @ STL 30.6% NE 99.9% 99.8% 100.0% 0.2% 0.1%
NE @ MIA 50.7% PIT 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.1%
CIN @ PIT 40.9% TEN 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
BAL @ DET 69.0% TEN 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

No comments:

Post a Comment