Playoff Implications - Week 5

Here is your week 5 guide to playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from the same simulation I run to calculate playoff seed probabilities for my daily NFL rankings. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 5 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 5 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
CIN @ NE	25.6%
HOU @ DAL	25.1%
BAL @ IND	24.0%
KC @ SF	23.2%
ATL @ NYG	22.9%
BUF @ DET	21.4%
CHI @ CAR	15.8%
MIN @ GB	15.7%
NYJ @ SD	15.2%
TB @ NO	12.7%
ARZ @ DEN	10.7%
STL @ PHI	9.0%
SEA @ WAS	8.2%
CLE @ TEN	6.1%
PIT @ JAC	3.4%

Beyond Week 5

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 6-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
14	NE @ SD	33.8%
16	ATL @ NO	32.4%
10	SF @ NO	30.7%
6	NE @ BUF	29.9%
9	PHI @ HOU	29.5%
8	GB @ NO	29.5%
14	ATL @ GB	29.4%
11	ATL @ CAR	28.1%
13	PHI @ DAL	27.9%
17	PHI @ NYG	27.9%

Week 5 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 5. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

CHI@CAR HOU@DAL ARZ@DEN BUF@DET MIN@GB BAL@IND PIT@JAC CIN@NE TB@NO ATL@NYG STL@PHI NYJ@SD KC@SF CLE@TEN SEA@WAS  OR Select Team: ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ OAK PHI PIT SD SEA SF STL TB TEN WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
BAL @ IND	62.1%	IND	68.7%	54.4%	77.5%	23.0%	11.2%
BAL @ IND	62.1%	BAL	71.7%	84.0%	64.2%	-19.8%	9.6%
MIN @ GB	79.2%	GB	64.6%	46.0%	69.5%	23.4%	9.5%
NYJ @ SD	73.5%	SD	61.5%	46.9%	66.8%	19.9%	8.8%
CIN @ NE	60.2%	NE	57.2%	46.7%	64.2%	17.5%	8.6%
HOU @ DAL	61.7%	HOU	58.3%	68.9%	51.7%	-17.2%	8.4%
HOU @ DAL	61.7%	DAL	47.8%	37.3%	54.4%	17.0%	8.3%
ATL @ NYG	63.6%	NYG	38.6%	27.9%	44.6%	16.7%	8.0%
KC @ SF	72.8%	SF	45.7%	32.7%	50.6%	17.9%	8.0%
ATL @ NYG	63.6%	ATL	48.9%	58.8%	43.3%	-15.5%	7.5%
BUF @ DET	72.9%	DET	73.6%	62.2%	77.8%	15.6%	6.9%
TB @ NO	82.2%	NO	38.3%	23.4%	41.5%	18.1%	6.9%
KC @ SF	72.8%	KC	24.1%	35.1%	20.0%	-15.1%	6.7%
BUF @ DET	72.9%	BUF	25.8%	36.7%	21.8%	-14.9%	6.6%
STL @ PHI	73.2%	PHI	38.8%	28.1%	42.7%	14.6%	6.4%
ARZ @ DEN	72.9%	ARZ	71.7%	81.7%	67.9%	-13.8%	6.1%
CIN @ NE	60.2%	CIN	86.3%	93.2%	81.8%	-11.5%	5.6%
CHI @ CAR	58.3%	CAR	20.8%	14.4%	25.3%	10.9%	5.4%
CHI @ CAR	58.3%	CHI	12.0%	18.3%	7.5%	-10.8%	5.3%
SEA @ WAS	27.5%	SEA	88.8%	91.8%	80.9%	-10.9%	4.9%
MIN @ GB	79.2%	MIN	7.1%	16.3%	4.7%	-11.6%	4.7%
ATL @ NYG	63.6%	NO	38.3%	33.5%	41.0%	7.5%	3.6%
PIT @ JAC	28.5%	PIT	12.3%	14.5%	6.8%	-7.6%	3.4%
HOU @ DAL	61.7%	IND	68.7%	64.5%	71.3%	6.8%	3.3%
CLE @ TEN	57.4%	CLE	5.8%	9.4%	3.2%	-6.2%	3.1%
CLE @ TEN	57.4%	TEN	6.9%	3.3%	9.5%	6.2%	3.1%
ARZ @ DEN	72.9%	DEN	93.2%	88.2%	95.1%	6.9%	3.1%
CIN @ NE	60.2%	BUF	25.8%	29.5%	23.4%	-6.2%	3.0%
BUF @ DET	72.9%	NE	57.2%	52.5%	59.0%	6.5%	2.9%
TB @ NO	82.2%	ATL	48.9%	54.7%	47.7%	-7.1%	2.7%
NYJ @ SD	73.5%	NYJ	5.7%	10.1%	4.1%	-6.0%	2.7%
HOU @ DAL	61.7%	PHI	38.8%	42.1%	36.7%	-5.4%	2.6%
STL @ PHI	73.2%	DAL	47.8%	52.1%	46.3%	-5.8%	2.6%
CHI @ CAR	58.3%	ATL	48.9%	51.8%	46.9%	-4.8%	2.4%
KC @ SF	72.8%	SD	61.5%	58.1%	62.8%	4.7%	2.1%
CIN @ NE	60.2%	MIA	22.3%	24.9%	20.6%	-4.3%	2.1%
NYJ @ SD	73.5%	IND	68.7%	72.1%	67.5%	-4.5%	2.0%
SEA @ WAS	27.5%	WAS	2.7%	1.5%	5.8%	4.3%	1.9%
ATL @ NYG	63.6%	DAL	47.8%	50.4%	46.4%	-4.0%	1.9%
ATL @ NYG	63.6%	PHI	38.8%	41.2%	37.3%	-3.9%	1.9%
TB @ NO	82.2%	CAR	20.8%	24.7%	19.9%	-4.8%	1.8%
BAL @ IND	62.1%	HOU	58.3%	60.6%	56.9%	-3.7%	1.8%
HOU @ DAL	61.7%	NYG	38.6%	40.6%	37.3%	-3.3%	1.6%
KC @ SF	72.8%	ARZ	71.7%	74.3%	70.7%	-3.6%	1.6%
ARZ @ DEN	72.9%	SF	45.7%	43.3%	46.6%	3.3%	1.5%
KC @ SF	72.8%	GB	64.6%	67.0%	63.7%	-3.3%	1.5%
CIN @ NE	60.2%	NO	38.3%	36.5%	39.5%	3.0%	1.5%
MIN @ GB	79.2%	DET	73.6%	76.4%	72.8%	-3.6%	1.5%
BUF @ DET	72.9%	MIA	22.3%	19.9%	23.2%	3.2%	1.4%
BUF @ DET	72.9%	GB	64.6%	66.9%	63.7%	-3.2%	1.4%
KC @ SF	72.8%	PHI	38.8%	41.1%	37.9%	-3.1%	1.4%
BAL @ IND	62.1%	DAL	47.8%	49.6%	46.7%	-2.9%	1.4%
CIN @ NE	60.2%	HOU	58.3%	56.6%	59.4%	2.9%	1.4%
CHI @ CAR	58.3%	NO	38.3%	39.9%	37.1%	-2.8%	1.4%
BUF @ DET	72.9%	ARZ	71.7%	73.9%	70.8%	-3.1%	1.4%
SEA @ WAS	27.5%	SF	45.7%	44.9%	47.9%	3.1%	1.4%
CIN @ NE	60.2%	SD	61.5%	59.9%	62.6%	2.7%	1.3%
CIN @ NE	60.2%	CAR	20.8%	22.4%	19.7%	-2.7%	1.3%
CHI @ CAR	58.3%	GB	64.6%	63.0%	65.7%	2.7%	1.3%
KC @ SF	72.8%	DET	73.6%	75.6%	72.8%	-2.7%	1.2%
NYJ @ SD	73.5%	PIT	12.3%	14.1%	11.7%	-2.4%	1.1%
HOU @ DAL	61.7%	TEN	6.9%	5.6%	7.6%	2.0%	1.0%
CIN @ NE	60.2%	NYJ	5.7%	6.6%	5.0%	-1.6%	0.8%
KC @ SF	72.8%	DEN	93.2%	92.0%	93.7%	1.7%	0.8%
TB @ NO	82.2%	DEN	93.2%	91.7%	93.6%	1.8%	0.7%
BUF @ DET	72.9%	NYJ	5.7%	4.6%	6.1%	1.5%	0.6%
NYJ @ SD	73.5%	CLE	5.8%	6.9%	5.4%	-1.5%	0.6%
TB @ NO	82.2%	TB	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	-1.4%	0.5%