Playoff Implications - Week 3

After a one week hiatus, playoff implications are back for week 3. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from the same simulation I run to calculate playoff seed probabilities for my daily NFL rankings. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 3 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 3 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
GB @ DET	24.3%
SF @ ARZ	22.1%
PIT @ CAR	21.3%
SD @ BUF	20.9%
WAS @ PHI	18.5%
BAL @ CLE	17.9%
MIN @ NO	15.6%
TEN @ CIN	15.5%
CHI @ NYJ	15.1%
IND @ JAC	13.9%
TB @ ATL	12.5%
KC @ MIA	12.3%
HOU @ NYG	12.2%
DAL @ STL	11.0%
DEN @ SEA	8.8%
OAK @ NE	5.6%

The high leverage game of the week features two AFC North teams, a division in which all four teams find themselves at 1-1, and even the Vikings have a fighting chance at making the playoffs (recent legal troubles not withstanding).

Beyond Week 3

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 4-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
7	NO @ DET	28.1%
4	CAR @ BAL	27.2%
9	BAL @ PIT	26.4%
4	PHI @ SF	25.5%
17	DET @ GB	25.5%
13	PHI @ DAL	25.3%
9	NO @ CAR	25.3%
7	ATL @ BAL	25.2%
6	GB @ MIA	25.1%
17	CAR @ ATL	24.8%

Week 3 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 3. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

SF@ARZ TB@ATL SD@BUF PIT@CAR TEN@CIN BAL@CLE GB@DET IND@JAC KC@MIA OAK@NE MIN@NO HOU@NYG CHI@NYJ WAS@PHI DEN@SEA DAL@STL  OR Select Team: ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ OAK PHI PIT SD SEA SF STL TB TEN WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
GB @ DET	55.2%	DET	46.2%	32.1%	57.7%	25.6%	12.7%
SF @ ARZ	37.6%	SF	67.5%	76.6%	52.4%	-24.2%	11.7%
GB @ DET	55.2%	GB	66.0%	78.9%	55.6%	-23.3%	11.6%
BAL @ CLE	44.3%	BAL	45.6%	55.7%	33.0%	-22.7%	11.3%
SD @ BUF	56.6%	SD	31.4%	43.4%	22.3%	-21.1%	10.4%
SF @ ARZ	37.6%	ARZ	28.4%	20.4%	41.8%	21.5%	10.4%
SD @ BUF	56.6%	BUF	32.0%	20.8%	40.5%	19.7%	9.8%
WAS @ PHI	72.3%	PHI	73.0%	58.2%	78.7%	20.5%	9.2%
PIT @ CAR	62.6%	PIT	38.6%	50.2%	31.6%	-18.6%	9.0%
TB @ ATL	71.6%	ATL	30.7%	17.3%	36.1%	18.8%	8.5%
IND @ JAC	28.2%	IND	39.5%	44.6%	26.5%	-18.1%	8.1%
KC @ MIA	65.1%	MIA	35.1%	24.1%	41.0%	16.9%	8.0%
WAS @ PHI	72.3%	WAS	16.8%	29.8%	11.8%	-18.0%	8.0%
TEN @ CIN	71.5%	TEN	25.9%	38.4%	21.0%	-17.4%	7.9%
PIT @ CAR	62.6%	CAR	60.2%	50.1%	66.3%	16.1%	7.8%
MIN @ NO	79.8%	NO	51.4%	36.2%	55.2%	19.1%	7.7%
TEN @ CIN	71.5%	CIN	73.5%	61.5%	78.3%	16.9%	7.6%
DAL @ STL	46.9%	DAL	28.2%	34.6%	20.9%	-13.7%	6.8%
HOU @ NYG	41.3%	HOU	70.2%	75.8%	62.1%	-13.7%	6.7%
BAL @ CLE	44.3%	CLE	13.0%	7.2%	20.4%	13.3%	6.6%
CHI @ NYJ	59.1%	CHI	21.5%	28.6%	16.6%	-11.9%	5.9%
CHI @ NYJ	59.1%	NYJ	14.9%	8.9%	19.1%	10.3%	5.0%
MIN @ NO	79.8%	MIN	12.3%	22.1%	9.9%	-12.2%	4.9%
DEN @ SEA	66.6%	SEA	87.4%	80.8%	90.7%	9.9%	4.7%
OAK @ NE	88.4%	NE	80.6%	69.1%	82.1%	13.1%	4.2%
KC @ MIA	65.1%	KC	4.2%	7.8%	2.3%	-5.5%	2.6%
PIT @ CAR	62.6%	CIN	73.5%	70.2%	75.5%	5.3%	2.6%
TB @ ATL	71.6%	CAR	60.2%	64.0%	58.7%	-5.2%	2.4%
DAL @ STL	46.9%	PHI	73.0%	70.9%	75.5%	4.6%	2.3%
HOU @ NYG	41.3%	IND	39.5%	37.6%	42.1%	4.5%	2.2%
IND @ JAC	28.2%	HOU	70.2%	68.8%	73.6%	4.9%	2.2%
HOU @ NYG	41.3%	NYG	4.7%	3.0%	7.0%	4.0%	2.0%
PIT @ CAR	62.6%	NO	51.4%	53.9%	49.9%	-4.1%	2.0%
DAL @ STL	46.9%	STL	3.3%	1.6%	5.3%	3.7%	1.8%
IND @ JAC	28.2%	TEN	25.9%	24.8%	28.8%	3.9%	1.8%
MIN @ NO	79.8%	CAR	60.2%	63.7%	59.3%	-4.4%	1.8%
TB @ ATL	71.6%	TB	2.1%	4.8%	1.1%	-3.7%	1.7%
KC @ MIA	65.1%	BUF	32.0%	34.2%	30.8%	-3.5%	1.7%
DEN @ SEA	66.6%	DEN	94.7%	96.9%	93.6%	-3.3%	1.6%
CHI @ NYJ	59.1%	GB	66.0%	64.2%	67.3%	3.1%	1.5%
OAK @ NE	88.4%	DAL	28.2%	24.3%	28.7%	4.4%	1.4%
DEN @ SEA	66.6%	SD	31.4%	29.5%	32.4%	2.9%	1.4%
IND @ JAC	28.2%	MIA	35.1%	34.2%	37.2%	3.0%	1.3%
CHI @ NYJ	59.1%	SD	31.4%	33.0%	30.3%	-2.7%	1.3%
HOU @ NYG	41.3%	MIA	35.1%	34.0%	36.6%	2.7%	1.3%
WAS @ PHI	72.3%	DAL	28.2%	30.3%	27.4%	-2.9%	1.3%
CHI @ NYJ	59.1%	ARZ	28.4%	26.9%	29.5%	2.6%	1.3%
MIN @ NO	79.8%	ARZ	28.4%	31.0%	27.8%	-3.1%	1.3%
DEN @ SEA	66.6%	ARZ	28.4%	30.1%	27.6%	-2.5%	1.2%
SD @ BUF	56.6%	DEN	94.7%	94.0%	95.3%	1.3%	0.6%
IND @ JAC	28.2%	JAC	0.4%	0.2%	1.1%	1.0%	0.4%