Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Turnover Index Week 9

In the week 7 writeup of the Turnover Index, I flagged the Jets as a team that may regress from its strong 4-1 start. Since that time, the Jets have dropped two straight. Granted, the first was to the undefeated Patriots, and the 2nd loss came after an early injury to starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.

But the most telling stat is defensive turnovers. Over their first five games, the Jets led the league in defensive turnovers, averaging three per game. In their two games since? Zero turnovers created on defense. It's only two games, but it makes for a nice illustration of the principle behind this betting strategy: turnovers "created" by the defense are largely random.

There were no week 8 bets, but there is one more correction to the historical results table (I promise this is the last one).


weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 1 $1,000 $40 (4.1%) $37 $1,037
7 3 1 $1,037 $79 (7.7%) ($29) $1,008

So, we are 2-2 against the spread, but still slightly above breakeven.

There are two picks against the spread for week nine.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Eagles @ Cowboys 19 4 -15 -2.1 Cowboys 55.1% 5.8%
Jaguars @ Jets 7 15 8 1.1 Jaguars 52.7% 0.8%

The Cowboys have had no luck in generating turnovers on defense - four over seven games. The Eagles are the flip side of that coin, making this an ideal betting opportunity. We are wagering 5.8% of our bankroll on the Cowboys to cover. The edge is much smaller for Jaguars-Jets, with just an 0.8% stake recommended on the Jags.

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