Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Playoff Implications - Week 5

Here is your week 5 guide to playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from the same simulation I run to calculate playoff seed probabilities for my daily NFL rankings. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 5 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 5 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Playoff Implications - Week 4

Here is your week 4 guide to playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from the same simulation I run to calculate playoff seed probabilities for my daily NFL rankings. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 4 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 4 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

College Football Rankings Now Available

Betting market rankings for college football are now available (and will update daily). As I did with my NFL rankings, I have moved these to a new home which will hopefully be more stable. Here is the link: College Football Betting Market Rankings.

All of the features outlined in this post are back: Generic Points Favored (total, offense, defense), projected wins, and strength of schedule rankings (both past and future). Some observations:

  • Oregon currently tops the week 5 rankings, but not by much. The top six teams are all within a couple points of each other (Oregon, Alabama, Baylor, Auburn, Florida State, and Oklahoma)
  • I have Marshall at a 50/50 shot of going undefeated in the regular season (not counting the Conference USA championship game).
  • SEC teams occupy ten of the top 24 spots in these rankings.

For those doing their own research/handicapping, there is also a link to a Google Docs version of the rankings (includes all teams, not just the top 50).

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Playoff Implications - Week 3

After a one week hiatus, playoff implications are back for week 3. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from the same simulation I run to calculate playoff seed probabilities for my daily NFL rankings. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 3 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 3 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Friday, September 5, 2014

NFL Rankings

Just a heads up that, due to circumstances beyond my control, my NFL rankings may only be updated intermittently over the next week or so. In addition, the rankings may look a bit odd from time to time until we get at least three weeks of "real" point spreads. Opening lines for week 3 are usually set sometime in between weeks 1 and 2.

Monday, September 1, 2014

Playoff Implications - Week 1

Too soon? Or not soon enough? The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background). It may seem premature to start talking playoffs already, but with a sixteen game schedule, even week one results can create meaningful shifts in the postseason outlook.

The playoff implications below are derived from the same simulation I run to calculate playoff seed probabilities for my daily NFL rankings. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups.

For example, the Bengals' chances of making the playoffs can swing by 24%, depending on the outcome of their season opener against the Ravens. If the Bengals win, their expected playoff probability is 63%. They lose and it's significantly lower at 38%. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 1 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 1 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.