Saturday, November 15, 2014

Turnover Index - Week 11

There are no picks that satisfy our betting criteria this week, but here is a check in on last week's performance. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 10 results

No games satisfy our betting criteria this week, but here are updated results from Week 10.

Our two Week 10 picks went 2-0 against the spread, with both the Chiefs and the Jets covering. So, we're off to a good start. Here are the season to date results:
  • Against the Spread: 5-1-0
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $1,077 (8% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
7 2 2 $1,000 $51 (5.2%) $47 $1,047
8 2 1 $1,047 $26 (2.6%) $1 $1,048
10 2 2 $1,048 $32 (3.1%) $29 $1,077

The "Old" Index

Under the original, simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 defensive turnover differential between the teams), season to date results for 2014 are 4-0 against the spread.

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