Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Turnover Index - Week 8

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 8. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 7 results

Our betting strategy got off to a good start, going 2-0 against the spread. The Patriots, despite forcing 14 turnovers in their first six games, were not able to manage a single one against the Jets. They won the game, but failed to cover the 9.5 point spread. On Monday Night, the Texans saw first hand how random the turnover battle can be, conceding two quick touchdowns to the Steelers off of turnovers deep in their territory (see how their win probability went into freefall).

Here are the results. We are up $47 off of our starting $1,000 bankroll.
  • Against the Spread: 2-0
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $1,047 (4.7% ROI)

Week 8 Picks

There are two bets against the spread this week. We are wagering 2.6% of our bankroll in total. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Bills @ Jets 12 3 -9 -1.3 Jets 52.9% 1.2%
Packers @ Saints 14 4 -10 -1.3 Saints 53.0% 1.4%

The "Old" Index

Under the original, simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 turnover differential), season to date results for 2014 are 1-0 against the spread.

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