Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Playoff Implications - Week 6

Here is your week 6 guide to playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from the same simulation I run to calculate playoff seed probabilities for my daily NFL rankings. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 6 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 6 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
NE @ BUF 31.4%
IND @ HOU 27.3%
NYG @ PHI 27.1%
CAR @ CIN 20.9%
DET @ MIN 19.3%
CHI @ ATL 18.9%
SF @ STL 18.8%
GB @ MIA 18.0%
BAL @ TB 17.5%
SD @ OAK 16.0%
PIT @ CLE 15.3%
WAS @ ARZ 15.3%
DAL @ SEA 12.0%
DEN @ NYJ 4.8%
JAC @ TEN 0.4%

The top two games this week feature matchups between division rivals with 3-2 records. Both the Patriots' and Bills' playoff hopes swing by 32% based on the outcome of their game. The stakes are high for the Texans as well, with a swing factor of 28%. The Colts are somewhat more secure in their playoff outlook, owing to their higher ranking than the Texans, but a 22% change in playoff odds is still significant.

At the bottom of the table, we have the remainder of the AFC South. The Titans cling to a 1% playoff probability, and can bump that up to 1.4% (yay?) with a win over the Jaguars. The Jaguars playoff probability had flatlined by week 4, and a win over the Titans is not going to change that.

Beyond Week 6

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 7-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
12 BAL @ NO 32.3%
9 NO @ CAR 30.9%
16 ATL @ NO 30.3%
16 BAL @ HOU 30.2%
7 ATL @ BAL 30.2%
15 MIA @ NE 29.9%
7 NO @ DET 29.9%
9 PHI @ HOU 29.7%
10 SF @ NO 29.3%
8 DET @ ATL 29.2%

Week 6 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 6. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
NE @ BUF 39.6% BUF 28.9% 16.1% 48.4% 32.3% 15.8%
NE @ BUF 39.6% NE 66.3% 78.9% 47.1% -31.8% 15.6%
IND @ HOU 41.4% HOU 46.7% 35.1% 63.1% 27.9% 13.8%
NYG @ PHI 59.7% PHI 51.9% 35.2% 63.1% 27.9% 13.7%
NYG @ PHI 59.7% NYG 38.9% 55.2% 27.9% -27.3% 13.4%
DET @ MIN 42.6% DET 48.7% 58.8% 35.1% -23.6% 11.7%
SF @ STL 38.0% SF 42.2% 51.1% 27.8% -23.3% 11.3%
IND @ HOU 41.4% IND 82.5% 91.7% 69.4% -22.4% 11.0%
BAL @ TB 39.5% BAL 54.7% 62.6% 42.6% -19.9% 9.7%
WAS @ ARZ 60.4% ARZ 38.5% 26.9% 46.1% 19.3% 9.4%
SD @ OAK 26.7% SD 68.9% 74.5% 53.5% -21.1% 9.3%
PIT @ CLE 56.4% PIT 21.5% 31.6% 13.6% -18.0% 8.9%
CHI @ ATL 59.9% ATL 33.1% 23.0% 39.8% 16.8% 8.2%
DAL @ SEA 76.1% DAL 66.7% 80.9% 62.3% -18.7% 8.0%
GB @ MIA 39.0% MIA 24.0% 18.0% 33.4% 15.4% 7.5%
CAR @ CIN 72.7% CIN 75.8% 64.8% 80.0% 15.1% 6.7%
PIT @ CLE 56.4% CLE 12.4% 5.1% 18.1% 12.9% 6.4%
CAR @ CIN 72.7% CAR 30.4% 40.8% 26.5% -14.4% 6.4%
CHI @ ATL 59.9% CHI 11.9% 18.7% 7.3% -11.4% 5.6%
GB @ MIA 39.0% GB 85.0% 89.3% 78.3% -10.9% 5.3%
DEN @ NYJ 24.8% DEN 93.0% 95.3% 86.0% -9.2% 4.0%
DET @ MIN 42.6% MIN 5.5% 2.2% 10.0% 7.8% 3.9%
CHI @ ATL 59.9% NO 47.1% 50.8% 44.6% -6.2% 3.0%
DAL @ SEA 76.1% SEA 95.9% 91.0% 97.4% 6.4% 2.7%
SF @ STL 38.0% DET 48.7% 46.8% 51.8% 5.0% 2.4%
SD @ OAK 26.7% KC 22.9% 21.5% 27.0% 5.5% 2.4%
CAR @ CIN 72.7% NO 47.1% 43.5% 48.4% 4.9% 2.2%
GB @ MIA 39.0% NE 66.3% 68.1% 63.7% -4.4% 2.1%
CHI @ ATL 59.9% CAR 30.4% 32.9% 28.7% -4.1% 2.0%
SF @ STL 38.0% ARZ 38.5% 37.0% 41.0% 4.1% 2.0%
SD @ OAK 26.7% BAL 54.7% 53.6% 57.8% 4.3% 1.9%
CAR @ CIN 72.7% ATL 33.1% 30.1% 34.2% 4.2% 1.9%
SF @ STL 38.0% PHI 51.9% 50.5% 54.2% 3.7% 1.8%
CAR @ CIN 72.7% SD 68.9% 71.8% 67.8% -4.0% 1.8%
WAS @ ARZ 60.4% WAS 2.4% 4.5% 1.1% -3.4% 1.7%
CAR @ CIN 72.7% BAL 54.7% 57.4% 53.7% -3.7% 1.7%
SD @ OAK 26.7% HOU 46.7% 45.7% 49.5% 3.7% 1.7%
BAL @ TB 39.5% SD 68.9% 67.6% 70.9% 3.3% 1.6%
GB @ MIA 39.0% BUF 28.9% 30.2% 26.9% -3.2% 1.6%
IND @ HOU 41.4% BUF 28.9% 30.2% 27.1% -3.1% 1.5%
BAL @ TB 39.5% CIN 75.8% 74.6% 77.7% 3.1% 1.5%
WAS @ ARZ 60.4% SF 42.2% 44.0% 41.1% -2.9% 1.4%
WAS @ ARZ 60.4% PHI 51.9% 53.6% 50.7% -2.9% 1.4%
BAL @ TB 39.5% HOU 46.7% 45.6% 48.5% 2.9% 1.4%
DET @ MIN 42.6% SF 42.2% 41.1% 43.8% 2.8% 1.4%
WAS @ ARZ 60.4% DAL 66.7% 68.4% 65.7% -2.7% 1.3%
DAL @ SEA 76.1% NYG 38.9% 36.6% 39.6% 3.0% 1.3%
DET @ MIN 42.6% GB 85.0% 83.9% 86.5% 2.6% 1.3%
BAL @ TB 39.5% PIT 21.5% 20.4% 23.1% 2.6% 1.3%
DET @ MIN 42.6% CHI 11.9% 11.0% 13.1% 2.1% 1.0%
BAL @ TB 39.5% CLE 12.4% 11.6% 13.7% 2.1% 1.0%
IND @ HOU 41.4% GB 85.0% 84.2% 86.2% 2.0% 1.0%
SF @ STL 38.0% CHI 11.9% 11.2% 13.1% 1.9% 0.9%
BAL @ TB 39.5% TB 1.3% 0.6% 2.4% 1.8% 0.9%
GB @ MIA 39.0% MIN 5.5% 4.8% 6.6% 1.7% 0.9%
DEN @ NYJ 24.8% NYJ 1.2% 0.8% 2.6% 1.8% 0.8%
SD @ OAK 26.7% DEN 93.0% 92.6% 94.1% 1.6% 0.7%
GB @ MIA 39.0% SEA 95.9% 95.4% 96.6% 1.3% 0.6%
JAC @ TEN 69.6% TEN 1.1% 0.4% 1.4% 1.0% 0.4%
SF @ STL 38.0% STL 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3%
CAR @ CIN 72.7% TB 1.3% 0.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3%

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