Sunday, December 29, 2013

Chris Bosh single handedly beats the Trailblazers (so to speak)

NBA Win Probability graphs have been updated with games through last night (December 28). With that update, Chris Bosh amassed the largest single game Win Probability Added (WPA) of the season: 104.4% (an entire game's worth, with 4.4% to spare). Here is the win probability graph and box score: MIA 108, POR 107.

Of Bosh's 104.4% WPA, 68% came on a single play: A three pointer to put the Heat up by 1 with less than a second to go in overtime.

See yesterday's post for additional info on the graphs and the calculation of Win Probability Added.

Saturday, December 28, 2013

NBA Win Probability Graphs and Box Scores

Box Score from
Wilt Chamberlain's 100 Point game
I'm excited to announce a new feature to this site: NBA Win Probability Graphs and Box Scores for the 2013-2014 season. I first published these graphs for each game of the 2013 NBA Finals (relive the drama of Game Six...in chart form!). In November, I rolled out an NBA Win Probability Calculator tool that generates win probability as a function of game state (quarter, time remaining, margin, and possession). And over the past few months, I have worked on refining and enhancing my methodology, as well as building an easily accessible database to store win probabilities for all NBA games.

Model Enhancements

But in order to fully roll out this latest feature, I needed a model with the ability to calculate win probability at a finer level of game state. For example, after a missed shot, but before the rebound. Or, when a player has been fouled and has been awarded two free throws. With this level of detail, I can properly apportion Win Probability Added (WPA) at a player level (the key feature of my box score).

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Playoff Implications - Week 16

Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

Ranking Week 16 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 16 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Turnover Index - Week 16

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 16. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 15 results

Our sole week 15 bet against the spread was successful (just barely, the Jets were 10.5 point underdogs and lost to the Panthers by 10). Here is the season-to-date performance:
  • Against the Spread: 12-15-1
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $814 (-19% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
4 2 0 $1,000 $268 (26.8%) ($268) $731
6 1 1 $731 $32 (4.5%) $29 $761
7 3 3 $761 $130 (17.1%) $118 $879
8 3 1 $879 $70 (8.1%) ($12) $867
9 7 2 $867 $166 (19.2%) ($66) $800
10 4 1.5 $800 $95 (11.9%) ($45) $755
11 2 0 $755 $14 (1.9%) ($14) $741
12 1 1 $741 $37 (5.1%) $34 $775
13 4 2 $775 $46 (5.9%) $21 $797
15 1 1 $797 $18 (2.3%) $16 $814

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Playoff Implications - Week 15

Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

Ranking Week 15 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 15 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Saturday, December 14, 2013

Turnover Index - Week 15

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 15. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 14 results

There were no week 14 results as no bets met our criteria. Here is the season-to-date performance:
  • Against the Spread: 11-15-1
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $775 (-20% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
4 2 0 $1,000 $268 (26.8%) ($268) $731
6 1 1 $731 $32 (4.5%) $29 $761
7 3 3 $761 $130 (17.1%) $118 $879
8 3 1 $879 $70 (8.1%) ($12) $867
9 7 2 $867 $166 (19.2%) ($66) $800
10 4 1.5 $800 $95 (11.9%) ($45) $755
11 2 0 $755 $14 (1.9%) ($14) $741
12 1 1 $741 $37 (5.1%) $34 $775
13 4 2 $775 $46 (5.9%) $21 $797

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Playoff Implications - Week 14

HereHere is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

Ranking Week 14 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 14 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

NBA Rankings Now Available

NBA team rankings for the 2013-2014 season are now available (they've been available for a few weeks now, but I've been trying to see if I can fix the issues where some users can't view the table). My rankings are an attempt to reverse engineer what the betting market "thinks" are the best and worst teams. See here for more background, or my Methodology page for a broader overview.

Just mouse over the column headings for a description of what they mean. Each metric has an associated sparkline showing the season-to-date trajectory.

I've also updated The Ticker as well, which displays each team's progress over time in chart form (there are also alternate versions with additional detail).

The Pacers crash the party

For much of last season, the Heat, Thunder, and Spurs dominated the top 3 spots in the rankings. Owing to their strong 17-2 start, the Pacers have displaced the Heat in that top 3 (for now).

The market is still playing "wait and see" on a few teams this season, despite stronger than expected starts. The Lakers are above 0.500, with the 12th best record in the league, but are ranked #22 according to the market. It will be interesting to see how the rankings move in response to Kobe Bryant's return.

The 76ers have also performed somewhat above expectations (although 7-13 is nothing to brag about), but the market has stayed firm in its estimation of Philly as a bottom dweller this season.

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Turnover Index - Week 14

There are no Turnover Index picks for Week 14 (no games meet the minimum criteria), but here are the results for Week 13. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 13 results

The Week 13 picks went 2-2 against the spread, but with a $21 gain to the bankroll (the two winning bets were for higher stakes). Here are the season to date results:
  • Against the Spread: 11-15-1
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $797 (-20% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
4 2 0 $1,000 $268 (26.8%) ($268) $731
6 1 1 $731 $32 (4.5%) $29 $761
7 3 3 $761 $130 (17.1%) $118 $879
8 3 1 $879 $70 (8.1%) ($12) $867
9 7 2 $867 $166 (19.2%) ($66) $800
10 4 1.5 $800 $95 (11.9%) ($45) $755
11 2 0 $755 $14 (1.9%) ($14) $741
12 1 1 $741 $37 (5.1%) $34 $775
13 4 2 $775 $46 (5.9%) $21 $797

The "Old" Index

Under last season's simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 turnover differential), season to date results for 2013 are 8-9-1 against the spread.