Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Turnover Index - Week 13

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 13. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 12 results

The Week 12 pick went 1-0 against the spread, with a $34 gain to the bankroll. Here are the season to date results:
  • Against the Spread: 9-13-1
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $775 (-22% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
4 2 0 $1,000 $268 (26.8%) ($268) $731
6 1 1 $731 $32 (4.5%) $29 $761
7 3 3 $761 $130 (17.1%) $118 $879
8 3 1 $879 $70 (8.1%) ($12) $867
9 7 2 $867 $166 (19.2%) ($66) $800
10 4 1.5 $800 $95 (11.9%) ($45) $755
11 2 0 $755 $14 (1.9%) ($14) $741
12 1 1 $741 $37 (5.1%) $34 $775

Week 13 Picks

There are four bets against the spread this week. We are wagering 5.9% of our bankroll in total. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Bengals @ Chargers 20 9 -11 -1.0 Chargers 52.8% 0.9%
Falcons @ Bills 8 20 12 1.1 Falcons 53.1% 1.5%
Dolphins @ Jets 18 8 -10 -0.9 Jets 52.6% 0.4%
Patriots @ Texans 23 8 -15 -1.4 Texans 53.9% 3.1%

The "Old" Index

Under last season's simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 turnover differential), season to date results for 2013 are 6-7-1 against the spread.

3 comments:

  1. Do you think the Turnover Index applies to college football as well? I haven't tested it out, but using college football would give out a bigger sample size than the NFL.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would like to test it out for college, but still need to find a good data source for turnovers. My go-to source, sportsdatabase.com, only has score and betting info for college.

      Delete
  2. TeamRankings has the takeaway stats:

    http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/takeaways-per-game

    ReplyDelete