Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Turnover Index - Week 12

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 12. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 11 results

It's been a rough four weeks. Week 11 picks went 0-2 against the spread, with a $14 loss to the bankroll. Here are the season to date results:
  • Against the Spread: 8-13-1
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $741 (-26% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
4 2 0 $1,000 $268 (26.8%) ($268) $731
6 1 1 $731 $32 (4.5%) $29 $761
7 3 3 $761 $130 (17.1%) $118 $879
8 3 1 $879 $70 (8.1%) ($12) $867
9 7 2 $867 $166 (19.2%) ($66) $800
10 4 1.5 $800 $95 (11.9%) ($45) $755
11 2 0 $755 $14 (1.9%) ($14) $741

Week 12 Picks

There is only one bet against the spread this week. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Chargers @ Chiefs 7 24 17 1.7 Chargers 54.8% 5.1%

The "Old" Index

Under last season's simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 turnover differential), season to date results for 2013 are 5-7-1 against the spread.

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