Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Turnover Index - Week 11

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 11. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 10 results

Once again, it was not a good week. Week 10 picks went 1-2-1 against the spread, with a $45 loss to the bankroll. One callout is on the Texans-Cardinals game. The general consensus seems to have the closing line at 3.5 or 4 points in favor of the Cardinals. The Cardinals won by 3, meaning the bet on the Texans should have covered. But my official source for lines and stats is sportsdatabase.com, which has the closing line at -3. I don't want to go down the rabbit hole of double-checking every single game, so I'm sticking with the sportsdatabase numbers with the assumption that any discrepancies even out in the long run. Here are the season to date results:
  • Against the Spread: 8-11-1
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $755 (-25% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
4 2 0 $1,000 $268 (26.8%) ($268) $731
6 1 1 $731 $32 (4.5%) $29 $761
7 3 3 $761 $130 (17.1%) $118 $879
8 3 1 $879 $70 (8.1%) ($12) $867
9 7 2 $867 $166 (19.2%) ($66) $800
10 4 1.5 $800 $95 (11.9%) ($45) $755

Week 11 Picks

There are two recommended bets against the spread this week. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion. We're betting just 1.9% of our $755 bankroll this week.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Cardinals @ Jaguars 20 12 -8 -0.9 Jaguars 52.5% 0.3%
Chargers @ Dolphins 6 16 10 1.1 Chargers 53.1% 1.6%

The "Old" Index

Under last season's simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 turnover differential), season to date results for 2013 are 5-6-1 against the spread.

2 comments:

  1. It looks rough if you start with the $1000, and great if you start with $731... Really, what that illustrates is that things are still deep in the 'short run'.

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    Replies
    1. True. The hard part with betting on the NFL is that you can be dead or broke before that short run turns into a long run.

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