Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Turnover Index - Week 10

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 10. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 9 results

It was not a good week. Week 9 picks went 2-5 against the spread, with a $67 loss to the bankroll. Here are the season to date results:
  • Against the Spread: 7-9
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $800 (-20% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
4 2 0 $1,000 $268 (26.8%) ($268) $731
6 1 1 $731 $32 (4.5%) $29 $761
7 3 3 $761 $130 (17.1%) $118 $879
8 3 1 $879 $70 (8.1%) ($12) $867
9 7 2 $867 $166 (19.2%) ($66) $800

Week 10 Picks

There are four recommended bets against the spread this week. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion. We're betting 11.9% of our $800 bankroll this week.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Bills @ Steelers 15 6 -9 -0.9 Steelers 52.6% 0.5%
Broncos @ Chargers 16 5 -11 -1.4 Chargers 53.9% 3.2%
Texans @ Cardinals 5 19 14 1.8 Texans 54.9% 5.4%
Seahawks @ Falcons 21 8 -13 -1.3 Falcons 53.8% 2.9%

The "Old" Index

Under last season's simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 turnover differential), season to date results for 2013 are 5-4 against the spread.

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