Tuesday, June 18, 2013

NBA Finals Game 6 - Win Probability Graph

Here is the win probability graph for Game 6. Ho hum. If Ray Allen doesn't knock down that three to force overtime, the "top" play of the game is Lebron's turnover with 0:39 left.

The comeback factor of 66 in this game means that, at the Heat's nadir (down by 4, Spurs ball, 0:28 on the clock), their odds of winning the game were 66 to 1. More background here and here.

San Antonio Spurs100 Excitement8.9
Miami Heat103 Comeback66

Prior StatePlayEnd StateBeforeChangeAfter
Q4 | 0:06 | SAS:95 MIA:92 | Poss:MIARay Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Bosh assists)Q4 | 0:05 | SAS:95 MIA:95 | Poss:SAS6.1%+39.8%45.9%
Q4 | 0:58 | SAS:91 MIA:89 | Poss:MIALeBron James lost ball turnover (Kawhi Leonard steals)Q4 | 0:39 | SAS:91 MIA:89 | Poss:SAS36.8%-19.4%17.4%
Q5 | 0:08 | SAS:100 MIA:101 | Poss:SASManu Ginobili lost ball turnover (Ray Allen steals)Q5 | 0:02 | SAS:100 MIA:101 | Poss:MIA73.3%+18.8%92.1%
Q4 | 1:07 | SAS:89 MIA:89 | Poss:SASTony Parker makes 12-foot two point shotQ4 | 0:58 | SAS:91 MIA:89 | Poss:MIA55.1%-18.3%36.8%
Q4 | 0:05 | SAS:95 MIA:95 | Poss:SASEnd of 4th QuarterQ5 | 12:00 | SAS:95 MIA:95 | Poss:45.9%+17.8%63.7%


  1. Is there any way to view this live?

    1. I'm going to give it a try for Game 7, but can't make any promises.

  2. What is the equation you are using to come to this?

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