NBA Finals Game 1 - Win Probability Graph

6/10/2013 Note: There was an error in the win probability graph in the original post. It has now been corrected.

A promised in this post, here is the win probability graph for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, in which a well-rested Spurs team upset the Miami Heat.  The graph below has two metrics at the top which I have  completely stolen from Advanced NFL Stats:

  • Excitement - This is a measure of how much drama there was in the game.  It sums up the total absolute movement in the win probability graph.  So, for Game 1, the win probability "travelled" a total of 6.9 wins from start to finish.
  • Comeback - This measures, for the winning team, what the longest odds were against them coming back.  With 8:51 left in the 3rd quarter, the Heat were up by 7 and had a 85.3% win probability, working out to about 6 to 1 odds against the Spurs.
The top play of the game was Ray Allen's three points from the line at 1:28, increasing the Heat's win probability by 16% (in a losing effort).

San Antonio Spurs92 Excitement6.0
Miami Heat88 Comeback6

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