Monday, June 10, 2013

NBA Finals Game 2 - Win Probability Graph

Here is the win probability graph for Game 2. More background here and here. Much less excitement compared to Game 1 (half as much, to be precise). I've also added a table at the bottom which displays the top five plays, as measured by their impact on win probability.

San Antonio Spurs84 Excitement3.2
Miami Heat103 Comeback0.7


TOP PLAYS
Prior StatePlayEnd StateBeforeChangeAfter
Q3 | 4:41 | SAS:58 MIA:59 | Poss:SASChris Bosh makes 15-foot two point shotQ3 | 4:30 | SAS:58 MIA:61 | Poss:SAS68.6%+7.0%75.6%
Q3 | 3:16 | SAS:62 MIA:61 | Poss:MIAMario Chalmers makes free throw 1 of 1Q3 | 3:11 | SAS:62 MIA:64 | Poss:SAS65.2%+6.9%72.1%
Q3 | 2:31 | SAS:62 MIA:64 | Poss:MIARay Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mario Chalmers assists)Q3 | 2:25 | SAS:62 MIA:67 | Poss:SAS75.1%+6.3%81.4%
Q3 | 7:28 | SAS:53 MIA:56 | Poss:SASKawhi Leonard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tony Parker assists)Q3 | 7:09 | SAS:56 MIA:56 | Poss:MIA75.5%-5.8%69.7%
Q3 | 7:50 | SAS:50 MIA:54 | Poss:SASDanny Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)Q3 | 7:43 | SAS:53 MIA:54 | Poss:MIA78.2%-5.6%72.6%