Monday, June 10, 2013

NBA Finals Game 2 - Win Probability Graph

Here is the win probability graph for Game 2. More background here and here. Much less excitement compared to Game 1 (half as much, to be precise). I've also added a table at the bottom which displays the top five plays, as measured by their impact on win probability.

San Antonio Spurs84 Excitement3.2
Miami Heat103 Comeback0.7

Prior StatePlayEnd StateBeforeChangeAfter
Q3 | 4:41 | SAS:58 MIA:59 | Poss:SASChris Bosh makes 15-foot two point shotQ3 | 4:30 | SAS:58 MIA:61 | Poss:SAS68.6%+7.0%75.6%
Q3 | 3:16 | SAS:62 MIA:61 | Poss:MIAMario Chalmers makes free throw 1 of 1Q3 | 3:11 | SAS:62 MIA:64 | Poss:SAS65.2%+6.9%72.1%
Q3 | 2:31 | SAS:62 MIA:64 | Poss:MIARay Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mario Chalmers assists)Q3 | 2:25 | SAS:62 MIA:67 | Poss:SAS75.1%+6.3%81.4%
Q3 | 7:28 | SAS:53 MIA:56 | Poss:SASKawhi Leonard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tony Parker assists)Q3 | 7:09 | SAS:56 MIA:56 | Poss:MIA75.5%-5.8%69.7%
Q3 | 7:50 | SAS:50 MIA:54 | Poss:SASDanny Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)Q3 | 7:43 | SAS:53 MIA:54 | Poss:MIA78.2%-5.6%72.6%

1 comment:

  1. Always interesting reading here. I was a little afraid you'd fallen off the internets after the NFL season...

    I'm a little curious how bad the Warrior's meltdown in game 1 vs the Spurs was in larger terms.

    P.S. Looking at historical data, it seems like the final score distribution is not gaussian. (This should be somewhat expected since the game can't end in a tie.) I find myself wondering about how well bookies have accounted for that.