Wednesday, November 28, 2012

The Turnover Index - Week 13

Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 13 of the NFL season.  The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunities that exploit the market's tendency to overvalue a team's season to date defensive turnovers.  See here and here for more background.

Last week's picks just went 1-2 against the spread.  The Rams covered in their game against the Cardinals, but the Vikings and Packers failed to cover in their respective matchups against the Bears and Giants.


Turnover Index Through Week 12 (Against the Spread): 9-6-0

So, despite the poor results last week, the total season results are still positive, covering the spread 60% of the time (very consistent with the long term average of 59%).

Week 13 Picks

We have four betting opportunities this week.  As a reminder, the criterion we use is any game in which there is at least a 10 defensive turnover differential between the two teams.  We bet on the team with the lower amount of turnovers.  See the table at the bottom of the post for the details.

  • Miami @ New England - Pick: Miami
  • Cleveland @ Oakland - Pick: Oakland
  • Pittsburgh @ Baltimore - Pick: Pittsburgh
  • Seattle @ Chicago - Pick: Seattle

Here is the complete matchup table:

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