Sunday, November 25, 2012

BCS Title Game - Line Predictions

With the BCS Title Game scenarios now down to Georgia-Notre Dame or Alabama-Notre Dame, here are predictions of what the point spread and over/under would be for both potential matchups, using my betting market rankings.


As of the evening of November 25, here are the GPF rankings for the three teams:

  • #1 Alabama - 31.2 GPF (= 12.6 oGPF + 18.6 dGPF)
  • #4 Georgia - 23.1 GPF (= 11.8 oGPF + 11.3 dGPF)
  • #10 Notre Dame - 20.4 GPF (= 4.7 oGPF + 15.7 dGPF)

The Div 1A average points scored is 27.8 (this is needed to calculate the predicted over/under).

Predictions

  • Alabama vs. Notre Dame
    • Line: Alabama as a 11 point favorite (= 31.2 - 20.4)
    • Over/Under: 38.5 points (= 2*27.8 + 12.6 - 18.6 + 4.7 - 15.7)
  • Georgia vs. Notre Dame
    • Line: Georgia as a 2.5 point favorite (= 23.1 - 20.4)
    • Over/Under: 45 points (=2*27.8 + 11.8 - 11.3 + 4.7 - 15.7)

Note: My original post inadvertently flipped the oGPF and dGPF for Georgia.  This didn't affect the line prediction, but it affected the over/under.  It has now been corrected (over/under prediction for Georgia-Notre Dame is 45 points)

2 comments:

  1. What's the average PPG you've been using for NBA? Is it 97 each/194 total?

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    Replies
    1. Currently, it's 194.4 points for the combined total.

      You can find them here. Hover over the "AOU" graph. I actually determine the league average dynamically each day ([nerd]it shows up as the intercept term in my regression analysis[/nerd]).

      I've been thinking about adding the league average over/under to the daily rankings table.

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