Tuesday, March 20, 2012

College Basketball Team Rankings - March 20, 2012

Yawning wildcat
Yawning Wildcat
Here are the College Basketball Team Rankings as of March 20, 2012. These rankings use the Vegas point spreads to derive an implied team by team ranking. My original post of the rankings has more detail on the methodology.

I've pared down the rankings to just show the remaining Sweet Sixteen teams.

Kentucky (as expected) is the team to beat.  There's not a lot of separation between the next four teams: Michigan State, Ohio State, Syracuse, and Kansas.  Things look fairly consistent with the KenPom rankings, with the big difference being Kentucky's dominance in these rankings (Ohio State and Kentucky are virtually equivalent according to kenpom.com)


The Rankings:

Rank Team Seed GPF Conf GWP KenPom
1 Kentucky 1 20.0 SEC 0.97 2
2 Michigan St. 1 16.5 B10 0.94 3
3 Ohio St. 2 16.5 B10 0.94 1
4 Syracuse 1 16.5 BE 0.94 6
5 Kansas 2 16.0 B12 0.93 4
6 North Carolina 1 15.0 ACC 0.93 7
9 Marquette 3 13.0 BE 0.90 15
10 Wisconsin 4 12.5 B10 0.89 5
11 Louisville 4 12.0 BE 0.89 19
14 Baylor 3 11.5 B12 0.88 16
16 Indiana 4 11.5 B10 0.87 11
17 Florida 7 11.5 SEC 0.87 13
24 Cincinnati 6 9.5 BE 0.84 25
36 North Carolina St. 11 8.5 ACC 0.80 35
58 Xavier 10 5.5 A10 0.72 49
62 Ohio 13 5.0 MAC 0.70 62

Glossary
  • Seed - The team's seed in the NCAA tournament (if applicable)
  • GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored".  It's what you'd expect the team to be favored by against a Div-I average opponent at a neutral site.
  • Conf - The conference the team plays in
  • GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability".  I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: GWP = 1/(1+exp(-GPF/6))
  • KenPom - The team's rank according to kenpom.com.

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