Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Week 12 Playoff Implications Available at FiveThirtyEight

Our weekly NFL playoff implications cheat sheet is now available at FiveThirtyEight. This week, I took at the possibility of a five win NFC South champion, applied Gini coefficients to each conference's playoff race, and explored the disconnect between Arizona's record and what the market thinks of them.

Turnover Index - Week 12

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 12. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 11 results

There were no week 11 games that satisfied our betting criteria, but here is a summary of season to date performance. We are at a 7.7% ROI so far off of our hypothetical $1,000 bankroll (we have gone 4-1 against the spread).

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
7 2 2 $1,000 $51 (5.2%) $47 $1,047
8 2 1 $1,047 $26 (2.6%) $1 $1,048
10 2 2 $1,048 $32 (3.1%) $29 $1,077

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Turnover Index - Week 11

There are no picks that satisfy our betting criteria this week, but here is a check in on last week's performance. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 10 results

No games satisfy our betting criteria this week, but here are updated results from Week 10.

Our two Week 10 picks went 2-0 against the spread, with both the Chiefs and the Jets covering. So, we're off to a good start. Here are the season to date results:
  • Against the Spread: 5-1-0
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $1,077 (8% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
7 2 2 $1,000 $51 (5.2%) $47 $1,047
8 2 1 $1,047 $26 (2.6%) $1 $1,048
10 2 2 $1,048 $32 (3.1%) $29 $1,077

The "Old" Index

Under the original, simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 defensive turnover differential between the teams), season to date results for 2014 are 4-0 against the spread.

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Week 11 Playoff Implications Now Available

Week Eleven playoff implications are now available at FiveThirtyEight. As an Indianapolis native, I don't need any help getting geared up for Colts-Pats, but this game has huge implications for securing a first round bye in the playoffs. It's important.

Saturday, November 8, 2014

NBA Win Probability Graphs for the 2014-15 Season

20140101 Kevin Martin (7)
Current WPA leader,
Minnesota's Kevin Martin
NBA Win Probability Graphs and Box Scores are now available for the 2014-15 season. All of last year's features are back: Win Probability Graphs and Box Scores, Player Win Probability Totals, and the Top Game Finder.

Last night's double-overtime game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Charlotte Hornets was the most exciting game (so far) of the season (according to the Excitement Index, which sums the win probability ups and downs of each game). The Hawks were able to comeback from a 0.1% win probability in the first overtime (down 6 with 22 seconds to go) to force a second overtime. A third overtime seemed likely before Lance Stephenson's buzzer beating off-the-backboard three pointer won it for Charlotte. Prior to last night's performance, Stephenson had the worst total Win Probability Added of any player. Even with that clutch shot, he is still in the bottom ten. In terms of expected Win Probability Added (eWPA), which is a context-independent version of WPA based just on box score stats, Lance is still at the bottom.

Timberwolf Kevin Martin has the early lead in the MVP race, with +131% in win probability added over four games (with most of that coming in a losing effort against the Bulls).

As I indicated previously, I have a bigger rollout planned with new data and new features, but here is the "old" version in the meantime while I continue to work out the kinks.

Turnover Index - Week 10

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 10. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 9 results

There were no week 9 games that satisfied our betting criteria, but here is a summary of season to date performance. We are at a 4.8% ROI so far off of our hypothetical $1,000 bankroll.

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
7 2 2 $1,000 $51 (5.2%) $47 $1,047
8 2 1 $1,047 $26 (2.6%) $1 $1,048

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Week 10 Playoff Implications now available

Week 10 Playoff Implications are now available at FiveThirtyEight. We have some added interactivity for this week's feature. Games can now be assessed and ranked based on how they affect playoff seeding outcomes, in addition to overall playoff probability. Seeding is important, especially under the NFL's current playoff system. FiveThirtyEight's Reuben Fischer-Baum has created a very slick and intuitive tool for making sense of the Week 10 playoff picture.