Despite the muted enthusiasm (and questionable judgment) surrounding this year's NBA All Star game, most would agree that bringing back the Elam Ending this year was a good call.

The Elam Ending is a fairly radical departure from the traditional rules of basketball, although one that strives to preserve what we all like about basketball, while preventing the slow, boring endgame situations that the traditional rules encourage.

While I'm still skeptical that the NBA will ever adopt the Elam Ending outside of exhibition situations, that didn't stop me from coding up an Elam Ending win probability calculator. Feel free to use this as you follow along to tonight's All Star Game.

### Methodology

We don't have a robust data set of actual Elam Ending games to pull from, so to create win probabilities, we have to do the next best thing: simulate them [1].

Each possession is modeled independently, with the following assumptions:

Simulated outcome of each possession
PointsProbability
0 points50.5%
1 point3.1%
2 points32.5%
3 points13.7%
4 points0.2%

These probabilities reflect the actual point frequency for all possessions from the pre-Covid 2019-20 NBA season. Each game state is simulated 10,000 times to estimate win probability.

To specify game state for the Elam Ending, you need to know three things:
• Distance to Target Score: How far away the leading team's score is from the established target score that determines the end of the game.