Sunday, November 6, 2016

Turnover Index Week 9

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 9. I distributed prior picks this season via tweet, but now have time to put these in a proper blog post. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Our single week 8 pick was successful (Bears over Vikings), bringing us to 2-1 on the season, and an ROI of 0.8%. Bets are sized according to the Kelly criterion. We finished last season with somewhat mixed results. After factoring in results from our week 16 picks, we were 11-7-1 against the spread, but with a negative ROI of -4.8%, meaning we lost on bets where we were risking a greater fraction of our bankroll.

Here are the 2016 season to date results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 0 $1,000 $36 (3.6%) ($36) $963
7 1 1 $963 $10 (1.1%) $9 $973
8 1 1 $973 $38 (4.0%) $35 $1,008



We have three bets this week, and we are wagering 6.7% of our bankroll.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Titans @ Chargers 7 15 8 1.0 Titans 52.6% 0.4%
Jaguars @ Chiefs 5 16 11 1.6 Jaguars 54.0% 3.5%
Lions @ Vikings 7 16 9 1.4 Lions 53.6% 2.6%

1 comment:

  1. Great work, as always. Any chance of posting this earlier next week?

    ReplyDelete