Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Turnover Index - Week 12

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 12. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

There were no bets that satisfied our criteria for Week 11. We went 1-1 with our Week 10 bets, and our bankroll dropped by $7 from $1,060 to $1,052. We are now 5-3 against the spread on the season, with an ROI of 5.2%. Bets are sized according to the Kelly criterion.

Here are the 2016 season to date results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 0 $1,000 $36 (3.6%) ($36) $963
7 1 1 $963 $10 (1.1%) $9 $973
8 1 1 $973 $38 (4.0%) $35 $1,008
9 3 2 $1,008 $64 (6.4%) $51 $1,060
10 2 1 $1,060 $15 (1.5%) ($7) $1,052


We have two bets this week. We are betting 0.9% of our bankroll on the Texans to cover against the Chargers and 0.4% on the Lions to cover against the Texans.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Chargers @ Texans 19 8 -11 -1.1 Texans 52.8% 0.9%
Vikings @ Lions 20 10 -10 -1.0 Lions 52.6% 0.4%

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