Saturday, November 12, 2016

Turnover Index Week 10

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 10. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

We went 2-1 with last week's bets, bringing us to 4-2 on the season, and an ROI of 6.0%. Bets are sized according to the Kelly criterion. Fortunately, our one loss was on a game that was just barely above the breakeven point, so it only cost us 0.4% of our bankroll. The model was more confident on our two winning picks, allowing us for a nice return on our 6.1% investment.

Here are the 2016 season to date results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 0 $1,000 $36 (3.6%) ($36) $963
7 1 1 $963 $10 (1.1%) $9 $973
8 1 1 $973 $38 (4.0%) $35 $1,008
9 3 2$1,008 $64 (6.4%) $51 $1,060


We have two bets this week, and we are wagering 1.5% of our bankroll. One of those bets is against the Chiefs. The 6-2 Chiefs lead the league in defensive turnovers, but they have been here before. In 2013, the Chiefs amassed 20 defensive turnovers in its first 8 games, and went 8-0 in the process. However, they finished the season 3-5, and lost in the first round of the playoffs (against the Colts, in the second biggest playoff collapse of all time).

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Dolphins @ Chargers 8 18 10 1.0 Dolphins 52.6% 0.4%
Chiefs @ Panthers 20 11 -9 -1.1 Panthers 52.9% 1.1%

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