Saturday, September 17, 2016

NFL Playoff Implications - Week 2

Here are playoff implications for week two of the NFL season. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team. The results of the Thursday night game have already been taken into account.

Ranking Week 2 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 2 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
KC @ HOU26.7%
TB @ ARZ20.6%
IND @ DEN20.4%
GB @ MIN18.4%
TEN @ DET17.6%
NO @ NYG17.0%
JAC @ SD15.0%
BAL @ CLE14.9%
CIN @ PIT14.6%
ATL @ OAK13.4%
PHI @ CHI12.7%
NYJ @ BUF12.2%
SEA @ STL12.1%
DAL @ WAS12.1%
MIA @ NE9.8%
SF @ CAR6.4%

This week's highest leverage game pits the Texans against the Chiefs. A win for the Chiefs would boost their playoff chances from 50% to 60%, while a loss would drop them to 42%.

Beyond Week 2

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 3-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
15DET @ NYG27.8%
6BAL @ NYG26.9%
8DET @ HOU26.6%
4NYG @ MIN26.4%
7HOU @ DEN25.5%
12MIN @ DET25.2%
6IND @ HOU25.2%
8KC @ IND24.9%
14HOU @ IND24.8%
4DEN @ TB24.8%

Week 2 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 2. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
GB @ MIN41.4%MIN57.6%49.2%69.6%20.4%10.0%
TB @ ARZ71.5%ARZ60.8%45.3%66.9%21.6%9.7%
KC @ HOU58.6%KC49.6%60.6%41.8%-18.8%9.3%
TB @ ARZ71.5%TB24.4%38.5%18.7%-19.8%8.9%
BAL @ CLE28.2%BAL40.6%45.8%27.5%-18.3%8.2%
IND @ DEN70.3%DEN63.0%50.5%68.2%17.7%8.1%
KC @ HOU58.6%HOU64.6%55.3%71.2%15.9%7.8%
CIN @ PIT60.4%CIN79.9%89.2%73.9%-15.3%7.5%
NO @ NYG65.3%NYG67.1%57.2%72.3%15.1%7.2%
CIN @ PIT60.4%PIT84.7%76.0%90.5%14.5%7.1%
NYJ @ BUF50.2%NYJ18.4%25.5%11.3%-14.1%7.1%
TEN @ DET70.4%DET45.1%34.3%49.6%15.3%7.0%
SEA @ STL28.1%SEA83.0%87.0%72.6%-14.4%6.5%
DAL @ WAS60.7%DAL14.9%22.8%9.8%-13.0%6.4%
IND @ DEN70.3%IND23.2%32.8%19.1%-13.7%6.3%
ATL @ OAK65.7%OAK30.0%21.6%34.4%12.8%6.1%
PHI @ CHI60.5%PHI19.2%26.5%14.4%-12.1%5.9%
DAL @ WAS60.7%WAS14.1%7.0%18.8%11.8%5.7%
JAC @ SD60.4%SD14.5%8.1%18.8%10.7%5.2%
JAC @ SD60.4%JAC16.6%23.0%12.3%-10.7%5.2%
MIA @ NE71.5%MIA7.5%14.6%4.6%-10.0%4.5%
MIA @ NE71.5%NE92.1%85.2%94.8%9.6%4.3%
NO @ NYG65.3%NO9.7%15.3%6.7%-8.6%4.1%
GB @ MIN41.4%GB93.0%96.4%88.3%-8.1%4.0%
NYJ @ BUF50.2%BUF6.8%3.2%10.3%7.1%3.6%
SF @ CAR87.2%CAR91.2%83.1%92.4%9.3%3.1%
PHI @ CHI60.5%CHI7.3%3.6%9.8%6.2%3.0%
TEN @ DET70.4%TEN8.4%12.8%6.5%-6.3%2.9%
SF @ CAR87.2%SF7.0%14.1%6.0%-8.1%2.7%
KC @ HOU58.6%IND23.2%26.1%21.1%-5.0%2.4%
PHI @ CHI60.5%NYG67.1%64.5%68.8%4.3%2.1%
JAC @ SD60.4%HOU64.6%62.1%66.2%4.0%2.0%
IND @ DEN70.3%HOU64.6%61.7%65.8%4.0%1.8%
NO @ NYG65.3%WAS14.1%16.5%12.9%-3.6%1.7%
GB @ MIN41.4%DET45.1%46.5%43.1%-3.4%1.7%
ATL @ OAK65.7%ATL3.7%5.9%2.5%-3.4%1.6%
KC @ HOU58.6%JAC16.6%18.5%15.2%-3.3%1.6%
NO @ NYG65.3%PHI19.2%21.3%18.1%-3.3%1.6%
IND @ DEN70.3%KC49.6%52.0%48.6%-3.4%1.6%
KC @ HOU58.6%DEN63.0%61.2%64.2%3.1%1.5%
TEN @ DET70.4%MIN57.6%59.9%56.7%-3.3%1.5%
ATL @ OAK65.7%KC49.6%51.5%48.6%-3.0%1.4%
SEA @ STL28.1%STL1.9%1.1%4.1%3.0%1.4%
TEN @ DET70.4%HOU64.6%62.5%65.5%3.0%1.3%
NO @ NYG65.3%DAL14.9%16.7%13.9%-2.8%1.3%
KC @ HOU58.6%BAL40.6%39.1%41.7%2.6%1.3%
IND @ DEN70.3%OAK30.0%31.9%29.2%-2.7%1.2%
BAL @ CLE28.2%DEN63.0%62.2%64.8%2.6%1.2%
TEN @ DET70.4%TB24.4%26.0%23.7%-2.3%1.1%
BAL @ CLE28.2%KC49.6%48.9%51.3%2.4%1.1%
KC @ HOU58.6%OAK30.0%28.8%30.8%2.1%1.0%
SEA @ STL28.1%ARZ60.8%60.1%62.3%2.1%1.0%
BAL @ CLE28.2%CIN79.9%79.3%81.4%2.1%1.0%
BAL @ CLE28.2%OAK30.0%29.4%31.5%2.1%0.9%
JAC @ SD60.4%DEN63.0%64.0%62.2%-1.8%0.9%
SEA @ STL28.1%TB24.4%23.8%25.8%2.0%0.9%
TEN @ DET70.4%ARZ60.8%62.1%60.2%-1.9%0.9%
IND @ DEN70.3%JAC16.6%15.2%17.1%1.9%0.9%
ATL @ OAK65.7%BAL40.6%41.8%40.0%-1.7%0.8%
TB @ ARZ71.5%CAR91.2%89.9%91.7%1.8%0.8%
NYJ @ BUF50.2%BAL40.6%39.8%41.4%1.6%0.8%
BAL @ CLE28.2%PIT84.7%84.2%86.0%1.8%0.8%
BAL @ CLE28.2%SD14.5%14.0%15.8%1.7%0.8%
BAL @ CLE28.2%NYJ18.4%17.9%19.6%1.7%0.8%
GB @ MIN41.4%SEA83.0%83.6%82.1%-1.5%0.8%
ATL @ OAK65.7%PIT84.7%85.8%84.2%-1.6%0.7%
ATL @ OAK65.7%DEN63.0%64.0%62.4%-1.5%0.7%
KC @ HOU58.6%TEN8.4%9.3%7.8%-1.4%0.7%
GB @ MIN41.4%ARZ60.8%61.3%59.9%-1.4%0.7%
SEA @ STL28.1%MIN57.6%57.2%58.8%1.6%0.7%
SEA @ STL28.1%DET45.1%44.7%46.2%1.6%0.7%
NO @ NYG65.3%MIN57.6%56.7%58.1%1.5%0.7%
KC @ HOU58.6%SD14.5%13.7%15.1%1.4%0.7%
JAC @ SD60.4%IND23.2%22.3%23.7%1.4%0.7%
TEN @ DET70.4%IND23.2%22.2%23.6%1.4%0.7%
PHI @ CHI60.5%ARZ60.8%61.6%60.2%-1.4%0.7%
TB @ ARZ71.5%SEA83.0%84.0%82.6%-1.4%0.6%
TEN @ DET70.4%DAL14.9%15.8%14.5%-1.4%0.6%
IND @ DEN70.3%ARZ60.8%59.8%61.1%1.3%0.6%
JAC @ SD60.4%TEN8.4%7.7%8.9%1.1%0.6%
SF @ CAR87.2%TB24.4%25.8%24.2%-1.6%0.5%
GB @ MIN41.4%TB24.4%24.8%23.7%-1.1%0.5%
TEN @ DET70.4%NO9.7%10.5%9.3%-1.2%0.5%
ATL @ OAK65.7%SD14.5%15.3%14.1%-1.1%0.5%
MIA @ NE71.5%DAL14.9%15.7%14.6%-1.2%0.5%
PHI @ CHI60.5%DAL14.9%14.3%15.3%1.0%0.5%
PHI @ CHI60.5%WAS14.1%13.5%14.5%1.0%0.5%
TEN @ DET70.4%GB93.0%93.8%92.7%-1.1%0.5%
NO @ NYG65.3%CAR91.2%90.6%91.6%1.0%0.5%
ATL @ OAK65.7%CIN79.9%80.6%79.6%-1.0%0.5%
JAC @ SD60.4%PIT84.7%85.3%84.4%-0.9%0.5%
MIA @ NE71.5%BUF6.8%7.5%6.5%-1.0%0.5%
TB @ ARZ71.5%SF7.0%7.7%6.8%-1.0%0.4%
NYJ @ BUF50.2%SD14.5%14.1%14.9%0.8%0.4%
KC @ HOU58.6%NE92.1%91.6%92.4%0.8%0.4%
NYJ @ BUF50.2%NE92.1%91.7%92.5%0.8%0.4%
GB @ MIN41.4%CAR91.2%91.5%90.8%-0.8%0.4%
GB @ MIN41.4%CHI7.3%7.6%6.9%-0.8%0.4%
SEA @ STL28.1%SF7.0%6.8%7.6%0.8%0.4%
ATL @ OAK65.7%BUF6.8%7.3%6.5%-0.7%0.4%
ATL @ OAK65.7%NE92.1%92.6%91.8%-0.7%0.3%
TEN @ DET70.4%CHI7.3%7.9%7.1%-0.8%0.3%
SEA @ STL28.1%GB93.0%92.8%93.6%0.8%0.3%
ATL @ OAK65.7%GB93.0%92.6%93.3%0.7%0.3%
TEN @ DET70.4%MIA7.5%7.9%7.3%-0.7%0.3%
SEA @ STL28.1%NE92.1%91.9%92.6%0.7%0.3%
BAL @ CLE28.2%CLE0.2%0.1%0.6%0.5%0.2%

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