Sunday, April 19, 2015

Live Win Probabilities for the NBA Playoffs

Barring technical difficulties, I will be sharing live versions of my win probability graphs for the remainder of the playoffs. The live charts at Advanced Football Analytics have long been a fixture of my NFL viewing experience on Sundays, so I'm glad to be able to offer something similar for the NBA.

Here is the link: Live Win Probability Graphs for the NBA. The graphs currently show yesterday's games, but will update once today's games get underway.

The charts do not update automatically, so you'll need to hit the "Refresh!" button for now to get the latest probabilities. There is also a bit of lag in the data.

In addition to win probabilities, player statistics are also tracked real time, including the current MVP and LVP (Least Valuable Player) according to win probability added.

The Excitement Index and Comeback Factor are tracked real time as well. The Excitement Index just tracks the cumulative movement in win probability over the course of the game. For complete games, the Comeback Factor represents the victorious team's odds of winning at their lowest point. To calculate this real time, I have modified the definition. Comeback factor at any point in the game represents the winning team's odds at their lowest point minus their current odds of winning. For example, if a team has a current win probability of 75% (odds = 1/3), and their lowest point in the game was 25% (odds=3/1), then the comeback factor is: 3/1 - 1/3 = 2.7. This definition reduces to the complete game version since a win probability of 1 is equal to 0 odds.

This is still a somewhat experimental feature, so any feedback is appreciated, here in the comments, or on Twitter.

1 comment:

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